Greek Euro reserves sit at 1 billion Euros.
That was the result of yesterday’s referendum in Greece,
which officially just referred to Europe’s most recent bailout proposal. But
unofficially, the resounding “No” refers to so much more. Germany’s “Austerity
First” approach. Five years of deepening economic recession. Membership in the
euro currency itself.
It’s no surprise, then, that markets worldwide got blasted
overnight and earlier today. Dow futures plunged by more than 200 points
(before recovering to down 50-ish by the close) … the euro currency and
interest rates tumbled … and commodities got spanked across the board.
So the most important, logical question is: “What happens
now?” Here are my answers:
First, the leaders of France and Germany met
today in Paris to discuss where to go next and to come up with a unified
negotiating position.
That meeting preceded an emergency summit of all European
leaders tomorrow. In advance of that gathering, German Chancellor Angela Merkel
has basically told Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras: “Your move” – saying
it’s up to him to offer a new debt-relief proposal.
Second, in Greece, the combative finance minister Yanis
Varoufakis resigned – broomed by Tsipras for being too combative.
Will Greece stop using the euro?
Banks are rapidly running out of cash, with some ATMs
reportedly dispensing even fewer or no euro notes at all. That’s because the
Greek banking system went into the weekend with a cushion of only 1 billion
euros – and the European Central Bank refused to increase the amount of
emergency aid it will provide again today.
So it comes as little surprise that the existing program of
capital controls and the ongoing bank holiday has been extended for even longer
– through at least Wednesday (and likely much longer!). Pharmacies are running
short of medicine, and worries are growing that tourists will start shunning
Greece in greater numbers. That would cut off one last major source of foreign
money the Greece has been relying on.
Third, Greece’s financial situation is worsening by the day.
Analysts estimate any new bailout program may need to be $20 billion to $30
billion larger now than it would have been a few months ago, given the further
deterioration in the economy and banking sector.
European power brokers don’t want to concede and give Athens
the massive debt write-offs it wants out of fear that will only encourage other
indebted nations to demand the same thing. But if they keep dithering and fail
to stem the bleeding soon, the costs of a fresh deal will keep spiraling
higher. After all, as the Wall Street Journal notes …
“As the euro shortage drags on, the government in Athens
likely will be unable to pay its external creditors. Ordinary Greeks won’t pay
taxes, rent or credit-card bills to keep the euros they have. The government
will be forced to pay its internal obligations through scrip — in effect,
checks promising a future payment in euros.”
“European power brokers don’t want to concede.”
That last point is the most important. The vote
significantly increases the chance of a Grexit from the euro currency union.
The country already missed a 1.6 billion euro debt payment to the International
Monetary Fund, and it owes the ECB 3.5 billion euros on July 20.
There’s no way in you-know-where Greece can pay that, at
least not in full face value euros. So it may need to start issuing massive
amounts of IOUs, roll out a new parallel currency, or re-denominate its debts
in a new drachma currency.
We keep being told by the powers-that-be in Europe not to
worry about that event. They say the losses will largely be borne by public
institutions like the ECB and European governments rather than private banks
and investors, cushioning the blow.
But isn’t that kind of like how former Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben Bernanke told us the subprime crisis was “well-contained”? We all
know how that wonderful advice worked out.
In the meantime, stick with super-cheap stocks and stocks in
sectors and markets that either A) have nothing to do with Greece or B) should
actually benefit from capital flight away from troubled countries and toward
stronger ones!
Our Readers Speak
Events are happening fast in Europe and in the global
markets. But I wanted to quickly touch on some of the comments that came in
over the holiday weekend in response to my piece on the June jobs numbers.
Reader Richard blamed the policies pursued by the Obama administration
for ongoing lackluster growth. His take: “It was demonstrated twice that money
given to the consumers gives a 2 1/2 multiplier effect, which is not available
if the money is given to the producers. The President’s policies are holding us
in the recession. His misapplication of the TARP fund allowed us to crash. He
is the actor that is killing us.”
Reader Patrick T. also said we need to enact new policies to
get the economy on track. His view: “We need to do several things that aren’t
going to fly with the Obama administration. First, is to lower the corporate
tax rate to 15%. With corporate tax rates at 40%, the highest in the world, our
corporations are punished for making a profit. If the tax rate was lowered to
15%, we would see a lot more investment that could fuel job creation
enormously.
“Second, regulations are killing our companies. As if
Obamacare is not enough, now Obama has the EPA destroying the coal industry
with their ridiculous regulations to stop the hoax called global warming.
Third, the Arctic and Continental Shelf need to be opened for oil drilling.
Also, government lands with huge oil deposits need to be opened for drilling.
Energy independence is a national security interest.”
The problem according to Reader Bruce, however, is that we
can’t even trust the economic numbers we do get. And the response from the
Federal Reserve and the rest Washington to those numbers has been wholly
inadequate. His comments:
“The government figures lie, except for a few. Unemployment
numbers are a sham since after receiving unemployment benefits to the max, they
drop out of the numbers, and that’s reflected in the lowest labor participation
rates in about 40 years. Include the latest assault on small business just
announced, and you have the formula for more anemic job growth.
“All in all, and after squandering $18 trillion, the ‘money
printers’ have terribly little to show for it, and we’re in debt up to our
eyeballs … forever. Pity the middle class, the poor suckers who work hard, save
their money and wind up supporting the ‘other’ 50% of the labor force. It’s
European Socialism.”
Clearly, we’d all like to see better economic growth here in
the U.S. – but there’s a lot of disagreement about how to get it. So the best
we can all do is navigate the choppy waters via safer, prudent investments
designed to prosper despite Washington policies, not because of them.
Any other thoughts I didn’t cover adequately here? Then tell
me about them over at the website here.
Other Developments of the Day
Chinese shares have shed a whopping $2.4 trillion in value
just in the past few weeks, a decline that spurred the government into action
over the weekend. Propaganda pieces in major media outlets urged investors to
stay calm and buy shares. The central bank established an indirect liquidity
program to provide money to brokerages to buy shares. Several major mutual
funds and state-backed funds said they would buy as well. Plus, IPOs of new
companies have been suspended. The efforts helped Chinese markets rally, but
not by as much as the government likely expected.
As if we didn’t have enough crises to deal with, the
Iran-U.S. nuclear negotiations have now run well past their June 30 deadline –
with no deal yet signed. I’ve heard a lot of happy talk about how negotiators
are getting close, but obviously no results as we head into a pivotal week for
the Vienna talks. If nothing is signed by Thursday, it doubles the review
period that Congress gets for any compact to 60 days from 30.
Source:www.moneyandmarkets.com.
Market Roundup Dow-46.53
to 17,683.58, S&P-8.02 to 2,068.76, NASDAQ-17.48 to 4,991.73, 10-YR Yield-0.115 to 2.278%, Gold+$4.70 to $1,168.20, Oil-$4.07 to $52.85
Comments
Greeks apparently don’t pay their taxes. The
first claw-back to raise cash should be the seizure of owed taxes. But, if the
Greek government issues IOUs instead of cash pension payments, Greeks who have
pulled out their cash should issue IOUs to the Greek government for their back
taxes. This is government of the deadbeats, by the
deadbeats and for the deadbeats. I recommend that the Greeks prepare their
fishing nets.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
No comments:
Post a Comment