In early 2025, the EU saw a mixed trade performance. Exports initially grew, but then experienced a slight decline. Imports, particularly from the US and China, showed strong growth trends. The overall trade balance shifted, with a surplus in the first quarter of the year, but a significant drop in April. Key Highlights:
Exports: EU exports of goods increased by 8.6% in the first quarter compared to the last quarter of 2024, but then decreased by 1.9% in April compared to April 2024.
Imports: EU imports rose by 4.1% in the first quarter and 0.5% in April.
Trade Balance: The EU recorded a surplus in the first quarter of 2025, but it decreased significantly in April, driven by a decline in the chemicals sector's surplus.
Key Trading Partners: The US and China showed strong import growth, while imports from Turkey also increased.
Agri-Food Trade: EU agri-food exports remained strong, with a 3% growth in the first quarter, while imports saw a significant 20% increase due to higher prices for certain commodities.
Regulations: The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered a new phase in January 2025, impacting imports of carbon-intensive products.
EU imports v exports 2025
Based on the available information from various sources as of early July 2025, here's a summary of the EU's imports and exports situation for 2025:
Overall
EU Trade Balance & Trends:
· In the first quarter of
2025, the EU saw a trade surplus of €55 billion.
· This was
the highest surplus since Q1 2021.
· This improvement
was driven by strongly increased exports to the United States.
· Overall, EU imports
rose by 4.1% and exports by 8.6% in Q1 2025 compared to the previous quarter.
· EU exports are expected
to grow modestly by 0.7% in 2025, with this growth projected to accelerate
to 2.1% in 2026. This is a downward revision from previous forecasts,
reflecting lower global demand and increased trade uncertainty.
· This slowdown in goods exports will be partially offset by resilient services exports.
Key
Trade Partners:
· United
States: Exports to the US saw a strong increase, especially for chemicals
and related products and machinery and vehicles, which contributed
significantly to the EU's trade surplus with the US in Q1 2025.
· China: The EU has
a large trade deficit with China, primarily in machinery and vehicles and other
manufactured goods.
· Other Key Partners: The UK, Switzerland, and Türkiye are also significant trade partners for the EU.
Trade
by Product Group (Q1 2025):
· Exports: The
largest increase in value was seen in chemicals and related
products (€35.3 billion, 24.4%), mainly driven by increased exports to the
US.
· Imports: Increases
were most notable for machinery and vehicles (€7.7 billion, 3.8%) and
other manufactured goods (€6.1 billion, 4.1%).
· Trade Balance by
Product: Surpluses in chemicals and related products, machinery &
vehicles, food & drink, and other goods exceeded deficits in energy, raw
materials, and other manufactured goods.
· The surplus for chemicals and related products significantly increased from €59.9 billion in Q4 2024 to €91.9 billion in Q1 2025.
Factors
Influencing EU Trade:
· Global Trade
Slowdown: Lower global demand for goods is a key factor impacting EU
export growth.
· Trade Policy
Uncertainty: Uncertainty surrounding trade policies, particularly those
implemented by the US, is a significant downside risk. For instance,
the appreciating euro against the dollar signals potential trouble for EU
exporters.
· Rising Import
Prices: Higher import prices, especially for agri-food products like cocoa
and coffee, impacted the EU's agri-food trade balance.
· Specific Regulations: New regulations like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR) are impacting how businesses import and export goods in the EU. Businesses need to be prepared for stricter requirements related to data collection, reporting, and product design.
Potential
Upside Opportunities:
· De-escalation of EU-US
Trade Tensions: A resolution of current trade tensions could boost EU
growth.
· Expansion of Trade with
other Countries: New free trade agreements could also support EU growth.
· Increased Defense
Spending: Rising defense expenditure could have a positive impact on the
economy.
· Competitiveness Reforms: Deepening the Single Market and implementing reforms to boost competitiveness could strengthen the EU economy's resilience.
Risks:
· Further Trade
Fragmentation: Escalating global trade tensions and potential trade
fragmentation could hinder GDP growth and fuel inflationary pressures.
· Climate-Related
Disasters: More frequent climate-related disasters pose a persistent
downside risk to growth.
· Geopolitical Developments: Ongoing geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains and impact commodity prices.
In summary, the EU started 2025 with strong trade performance, boosted by increased exports to the US. However, the outlook for the rest of the year is more cautious due to the global trade slowdown and trade policy uncertainty. Further developments in trade negotiations, global economic conditions, and the implementation of new regulations will be crucial in shaping the EU's import and export landscape throughout 2025.
https://www.google.com/search?q=eu+imports+v+exports+2025
Comments
The EU needs Energy and will likely want to Import Oil and Natural Gas from the US and Canada. The EU is also interested in AI and this will lead them to consider Nuclear Power. They lack the Investment Capital to expand manufacturing. Their auto industries will likely build more auto manufacturing plants in the US to shorten their supply chain for US sales and lower their corporate tax to 15%.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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