Russia's nominal GDP in 2024 is estimated to be around $2.16 trillion USD. In 2024, Russia's nominal per capita GDP is estimated to be around $14,341. In 2024, Russia's unemployment rate reached a historic low, decreasing to approximately 2.53%. In 2024, Russia experienced a significant increase in inflation, with the average annual rate reaching approximately 8.5%. In 2024 Exports totaled $433.9 billion and Imports totaled $283 billion. Russia's nominal GDP in 2025 is projected to be around $2.08 trillion.
In 2024, Russia's economy experienced a 4.1% growth, exceeding initial projections, driven by strong domestic demand and increased government spending. However, this growth is increasingly concentrated in military-related sectors, and the economy faces challenges like high inflation and labor shortages.
Key highlights of the Russian economy in 2024:
GDP Growth: Russia's GDP grew by 4.1%, with some sources suggesting a slightly higher figure of 4.3%.
Drivers of Growth:
- Increased Government
Spending: Fiscal stimulus, including state-sponsored loan programs,
fueled growth.
- Robust Domestic Demand: Both
household consumption and investment demand contributed to the
expansion.
- Manufacturing Growth: Strong performance in military-related and import-substituting industries played a significant role.
Challenges:
- High Inflation: Inflation remained
elevated at 9.4% and continued to rise, exceeding the Central Bank of Russia's
target.
- Labor Shortages: A tight labor
market pushed up real wages but also created challenges for some
sectors.
- Dependence on Military Spending: The concentration of growth in military-related industries raises concerns about sustainability and balanced economic development.
Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) responded to rising inflation by increasing the policy rate, reaching 21% by October 2024.
Trade: Russia's trade surplus increased slightly compared to 2023, driven by a rise in exports and a decline in imports.
Long-term Outlook: While the Russian economy has shown resilience, economists predict a slowdown in growth for 2025, with forecasts ranging from 1% to 2%.
In summary, Russia's economy in 2024 exhibited strong growth, but also highlighted vulnerabilities related to inflation, labor market tightness, and the concentration of growth in specific sectors.
In 2025, Russia continues to be a major energy exporter, with China and India being the top destinations for its crude oil exports. Other significant importers of Russian energy include Turkey, the European Union (EU), and Japan.
Oil prices in 2025 are
expected to be lower than in 2024, with forecasts ranging from
the mid-$50s to the low-$70s per barrel for Brent crude, and in the
low-$60s for WTI.
https://www.google.com/search?q=oil+prices+forecast+2025
Tariffs US v Russia
In 2025, the US has imposed a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all imports, including those from Russia, as part of a broader "reciprocal tariff" policy. Additionally, there are potential extra tariffs on countries aligning with BRICS policies, which could affect Russia. Furthermore, a bill in Congress proposes a 500% tariff on any country continuing to buy Russian energy, including China and India. Here's a more detailed breakdown:
General Baseline Tariff: A 10% tariff on most US imports, including those from Russia, is in effect.
BRICS Alignment Tariff: Trump has threatened an additional 10% tariff on countries aligning with BRICS policies, which could include Russia.
Potential Energy Tariffs: A bill in Congress proposes a 500% tariff on countries buying Russian energy, including Russia's allies.
Other Potential Tariffs: Specific tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum imports could also impact Russia, depending on the details of those policies.
Russian Tariffs: Russia has also imposed increased tariffs on imports from countries it deems unfriendly, including a 35% duty on personal hygiene items, incense, and weapons.
Note: The situation is fluid, and the specifics of these tariffs, particularly the additional ones, could change depending on political developments and trade negotiations.
Comments
Russia will continue to export oil and natural gas to China, but oil and gas exports to the EU, India and Japan will likely decline in Q4 2025. Inflation from excessive government spending will continue to erode Russia’s War Economy. Oil prices are set to decline and this will result in lower revenue for Russia.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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