US Economy 7-24-25

AI Overview

The Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States from 2015 to 2025 by year ending is as follows:

·       2015: $18.295 trillion

·       2016: $18.805 trillion

·       2017: $19.612 trillion

·       2018: $20.657 trillion

·       2019: $21.540 trillion

·       2020: $21.354 trillion

·       2021: $23.681 trillion

·       2022: $26.007 trillion

·       2023: $27.721 trillion

·       2024: $29.184.9 trillion (estimated)

·       2025: $28.978 trillion (forecast) 

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+nominal+GDP+from+2015+to2025+by+year+ending 

Comments: The 2025 {forecast) has also been estimated at $30 trillion.

Here's a summary of the Vanguard 500 Index Fund's (VFIAX) year-ending performance from 2015 to the end of 2024 (2025 data is only partially available):

·       2015: 1.36% annual return.

·       2016: 11.93% annual return.

·       2017: 21.79% annual return.

·       2018: -4.43% annual return.

·       2019: 31.46% annual return.

·       2020: 18.37% annual return.

·       2021: 28.66% annual return.

·       2022: -18.15% annual return.

·       2023: 26.24% annual return.

·       2024: 24.97% annual return. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=vanguard+500+index+history+2015+to+2025+year+ending

From 2015 to the end of 2024 (a 10-year period), the Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) had an average annual return of 13.60%. The average annual return for the S&P 500 Index (the benchmark for VFIAX) for the same period was slightly higher at 13.65%. 

Comment: The negative return in 2018 of -4.43% coincided with the Attacks on Trump and the Republicans losing the House. The negative return in 2022 of -18.15% coincided with the passage of the Big Green Scam and Rising Inflation. The 500 index is a popular choice for employee-directed 401K accounts.

The US national debt has significantly increased between 2015 and 2025. In 2015, the national debt was around $18.15 trillion. By the end of 2025, it is projected to be around $36.6 trillion. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+national+debt+from+2015+to+2025+by+year+ending

Comment: The National Debt grew by $18.45 trillion from 2015 to 2025 coinciding with Covid-19 in 2020 and the Green New Scam in 2022.

Comment: I expect the National Debt to rise in 2025 and decline in 2026 with the help of increased Tariff Revenue. I expect the Debt to begin to decline in 2027 and 2028.

The US Trade Deficit in 2024 reached $1.2047194 trillion. Imports were $3.2664102 trillion. Exports were $2.0616908 trillion.

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0004.html

Comment: Trump wants to decrease imports and increase exports. The US Trade Deficit reached $1 trillion in 2021.

Here are the US average annual inflation rates (year ending) from 2015 to 2025, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and other sources:

·       2015: 0.1%

·       2016: 1.3%

·       2017: 2.1%

·       2018: 2.4%

·       2019: 1.8%

·       2020: 1.2%

·       2021: 4.7%

·       2022: 8.0%

·       2023: 4.1%

·       2024: 2.9%

·       2025: 2.6% (as of June 11, 2025) 

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+average+inflation+2015+to+2025+by+year+ending

Comment: Trumps wants inflation reduced to 1.5%.

US Unemployment in 2025 was reported at 4.1%

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+unemployment+july+2025

Comment: Trump wants to lower US Unemployment back to under 3.9%.

Here are the median household incomes by year ending, which provide a good approximation of average trends:

·       2015: $56,514.42

·       2016: $59,040.54

·       2017: $61,375.41

·       2018  $63,179

·       2019: $68,700

·       2020: $68,010

·       2021: $70,780

·       2022: $74,580

·       2023: $80,610

·       2024  $61,984

·       2025  $78,171

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+average+household+income+2015+to+2025+by+year+ending

Comment:  Government statistics need to be vetted by DOGE to double-check Median Household Income from 2022 to 2025.

Approximately 8.9 million Americans are estimated to hold multiple jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This represents about 5.6% of the total civilian employment. The trend of working multiple jobs is at its highest level since 2004. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=how+many+us+citizens+have+2+jobs

Comments

The US Nominal GDP is headed for $30 trillion in 2025. It measures what the US produced in 2025. It includes the Private Sector and Government Spending.

The Vanguard 500 includes the value of the stocks for the largest 500 companies in the US and includes the Dow Jones Industrial 30.

The Average Annual Inflation Rate tracks the devaluation of the US Dollar by year.

The Median Household Income tracks the average family earnings by year.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader