Russia vs Ukraine Update 7-16-25

AI Overview

Ukraine continues to resist the full-scale Russian invasion that began in February 2022.

While Russia has made some advances, particularly in the east, Ukraine's defense, supported by Western aid, has prevented a complete collapse of their lines. However, the war is now in a prolonged phase of attrition, with Russia reportedly holding the initiative in many areas and making slow gains, particularly north and west of Donetsk towards the city of Pokrovsk.  

Here's a closer look at some key aspects:

·       Russia's Advances and Strategy: Russia's military strategy in Ukraine has transitioned to one of attrition, focusing on gradually wearing down Ukraine's armed forces across the front line. Russia has also focused on taking territory to strengthen its bargaining position in potential future negotiations. They are using tactics involving small unit assaults, drones, glide bombs, electronic warfare, and improved artillery targeting.

·       Ukraine's Resistance and Strategy: Ukraine has shown strong resilience, initially preventing Russia from achieving its primary objectives. Their defense relies on a combination of tactics, including the extensive use of drones, artillery, and fortifications like trenches and dragon's teeth. Ukraine's drone production has increased significantly, and they are developing long-range strike drones.

·       Western Aid's Impact: U.S. and other Western military aid has been crucial in enabling Ukraine to sustain its defense and conduct counter-offensives, according to the U.S. Department of Defense and analysts. However, delays in aid and the scale of Russian military production and mobilization raise concerns about Ukraine's long-term ability to hold the line without continued and robust support. 

AI's Role

While the conflict is primarily fought by human soldiers, AI and related technologies are playing an increasingly important role:

·       Drone Warfare: Both sides are heavily using drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks. Ukraine's innovative use of drones has been particularly effective in inflicting losses on Russian forces.

·       Intelligence and Targeting: AI-powered analysis of sensor data, images, and text is used by Ukraine to identify and prioritize targets, improving the effectiveness of their strikes.

·       Electronic Warfare: Both sides are employing electronic warfare to jam enemy communications and drones. 

Overall Situation

The war remains a brutal and attritional conflict. Russia has been making slow and costly advances in some areas, while Ukraine is focused on holding its ground and inflicting heavy losses on the invading forces. The long-term trajectory of the war will likely be influenced by the continuation and scale of international support for Ukraine, as well as the ability of both sides to sustain their military efforts and adapt their strategies to the evolving battlefield. 

is ukraine holding back russia's advance ai overview

Despite the numerical superiority of the Russian military in some aspects like personnel, aircraft, and tanks, as of July 2025

, Ukraine has been able to impede Russia's advance in various ways, according to recent assessments: 

·       Defensive Resistance: Ukrainian forces have successfully held back Russian advances along multiple fronts, inflicting significant losses on equipment and personnel, according to CSIS. Russia's advance has been slow and costly in terms of casualties and equipment losses, according to the BBC and CSIS.

·       Technological Innovation: Ukraine has effectively utilized drone warfare, combining drones with artillery and electronic warfare to combat superior Russian forces and deny them large territorial gains, according to CSIS. Ukraine is also developing and employing new drone formations and technical skills to stop Russian assaults and is on track to produce over 2.5 million drones a year.

·       Strategic Defense: Ukrainian forces have been successful in defending key areas like Toretsk, despite Russia's sustained efforts to capture it, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

·       Targeted Strikes: Ukraine has also conducted successful strikes against Russian command posts and other targets in occupied territories, disrupting logistics and coordination of occupying forces, according to The Kyiv Independent. 

However, Ukraine faces challenges. Russia has recently escalated long-range drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, including using large-scale strike packages to try and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Ukrainian personnel are reportedly exhausted and in need of more rotations, according to The Wall Street Journal. 

Overall, while Ukraine faces significant challenges and Russia continues to exert pressure, Ukraine has demonstrated a capacity to defend its territory and inflict costs on the Russian military, thereby hindering their advances through a combination of defensive resistance, technological innovation, and targeted strikes. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=is+ukraine+holding+back+russia%27s+advance+ai+overview

Ending the war in Ukraine is more likely to occur when Russian exports of oil and natural gas decline causing Russian Revenue to decline. As Supply increases, prices will decline and further impact Russia’s ability to afford this war.

U.S. oil and natural gas production is expected to increase in 2025, with both reaching record highs, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This increase is driven by rising demand for both energy sources, particularly from exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and petroleum products. 

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

Oil: The EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to average 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025, according to a Reuters report. This is slightly higher than previous estimates. Growth is expected to be particularly strong in the Permian Basin. 

Natural Gas:

·       Dry natural gas production is also forecast to increase, with the EIA projecting a rise from 103.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2024 to 104.6 bcfd in 2025 and 107.3 bcfd in 2026. 

·       Increased production is expected from the Permian and Haynesville regions. 

·       Stronger natural gas prices are expected to drive the increase in production, as well as rising demand from new LNG export facilities, according to a report from Commodity Insights. 

·       The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook predicts that natural gas demand will exceed supply over the next two years. 

Other Factors:

Exports: Increased exports of both crude oil and natural gas are a major driver of production growth. 

Technology: Technological advancements in drilling and extraction continue to contribute to increased production. 

Prices: Higher natural gas prices are incentivizing increased production, while oil prices are expected to remain relatively stable, according to a report from Anadolu Ajansı. 

Oversupply Concerns: While production is expected to increase, there are also concerns about potential oversupply and its impact on prices, according to a Reuters report. 

Is us oil and natural gas production increasing in 2025 ?

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts, US crude oil production is expected to rise in 2025 compared to 2024, but may slightly decline in 2026.

Natural gas production is also projected to increase in 2025, reaching record highs, before potentially plateauing or slightly declining in 2026.  Here's a closer look at the trends for both oil and natural gas:

Crude oil production

·       2025 Forecast: The EIA anticipates US crude oil production to average about 13.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, a slight increase from 13.2 million b/d in 2024. This rise is largely driven by increased production in the Permian Basin.

·       2026 Forecast: Production is expected to decline slightly from the 2025 levels, averaging just under 13.4 million b/d.

·       Key Factors:

·       Permian Basin: The Permian Basin is projected to continue driving US oil production growth due to productivity gains, new and expanded infrastructure, and higher crude oil prices in 2025.

·       Declining Oil Prices: However, declining oil prices have prompted producers to slow down drilling and completion activity, contributing to a forecasted dip in production towards the end of 2025 and into 2026.

·       Reduced Rig Count: The number of active drilling rigs has decreased, which may also impact future production levels. 

Natural gas production

·       2025 Forecast: US dry natural gas production is projected to increase in 2025, reaching a record high of 105.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) compared to 103.2 bcfd in 2024.

·       2026 Forecast: The EIA anticipates a slight decline in natural gas production in 2026, dropping to 105.4 bcfd.

·       Key Factors:

·       Higher Prices: Stronger natural gas prices in 2025, compared to 2024, have supported the increase in production.

·       Permian, Appalachia, and Haynesville: Growth in natural gas production is mainly driven by increased output from the Permian region (estimated to be 6% higher in 2025 than in 2024), as well as the Appalachia and Haynesville regions.

·       Export Growth: Increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) export demand is also supporting natural gas production.

·       Potential Headwinds: Production growth may be offset by an overall decline in production from other regions of the United States in 2026. 

In essence, while 2025 is expected to see increases in both US oil and natural gas production, the outlook for 2026 suggests a potential slowdown or leveling off, driven by factors like oil price fluctuations and potentially shifting drilling priorities.

https://www.google.com/search?q=is+us+oil+and+natural+gas+production+increasing+in+2025

Comments

Oil and Natural Gas Prices will go lower as Demand goes down. The US should expect regular gasoline prices to remain stable at its current levels. Reducing Gasoline Taxes are the only variable that can be employed. As Drilling Technology improves to become less expensive, the current costs will decline moderately. Increasing Supply will continue to be the priority. The completion of pipelines will allow prices to recede.

Ending the Russian War against Ukraine could end earlier.  NATO countries are increasing their funding from 2% of GDP to 5% of GDP.  NATO will enter the supply chain, take over funding of the War and pay the US for its Military Equipment. This Strategy could make Putin see the advantage of ending the War.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader