Washington (CNN)Donald
Trump has won his party's trust
on top issues more than any other Republican presidential candidate, and now
stands as the clear leader in the race for the GOP nomination, according to a new
CNN/ORC poll.
The survey finds Trump with the support
of 24% of Republican registered voters. His nearest competitor, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, stands 11 points behind at 13%. Just
behind Bush, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has 9%, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker 8%, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul 6%, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, former tech CEO Carly Fiorina and Ohio Gov. John Kasich all land at 5%, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee rounding out the top 10 at 4%.
Trump is the biggest gainer in the poll,
up 6 points since July according to the first nationwide CNN/ORC poll since the
top candidates debated in Cleveland on Aug. 6. Carson gained 5 points and
Fiorina 4 points. Trump has also boosted his favorability numbers among
Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, 58% have a favorable view of Trump
now, that figure stood at 50% in the July survey.
These nationwide findings follow recent
polling in Iowa and New Hampshire showing Trump also leads the Republican field
in those two key early states.
Bush, who held the top spot in the field
in most CNN/ORC polls on the race between last fall and Trump's entry into the
race in June, has seen his favorability ratings drop alongside his standing in
the contest. Overall, 56% hold an unfavorable view of the former Florida
governor and 42% of Republican voters have a negative impression. That's an
increase in negative views among all adults (up from 43% since July) and among
Republican voters (up from 34% unfavorable).
While Kasich and Fiorina remain largely
unknown nationally, those Republicans who do have an opinion of these two --
both widely seen as debate standouts -- tend to tilt positive. Fiorina has a
45% favorable to 11% unfavorable rating among Republican voters, with 43%
unable to rate her, while Kasich's is 32% favorable to 20% unfavorable, with
49% unable to rate him.
The poll suggests those behind Trump
love him: He holds a 98% favorability rating among his supporters. But those
Republican voters who aren't supporting Trump are skeptical that he would help
the party. Most Republicans (58%) say the party would have a better chance to
win in 2016 with someone else at the top of the ticket, including 72% of those
who don't currently back the businessman.
Still, Trump has quickly won the trust
of Republican voters on several top issues. According to the poll, 45% say they
trust Trump more than any other Republican candidate on the economy -- up 25
points since June, 44% say they trust Trump over the others on illegal
immigration -- up 30 points since June -- and 32% trust him most to handle
ISIS, no other candidate comes close on any of these issues.
On the
economy and illegal immigration, Trump is far and away the top choice even
among those Republicans who support someone else for the nomination (33% who
say they will most likely vote for someone else say Trump is their most trusted
on the economy, 29% say so on illegal immigration). Trump is also most trusted
on social issues, 19% say he's their top choice to handle that. Bush follows at
15%.
On two of these issues, Trump is more
trusted among conservative Republicans than among moderate Republicans: When it
comes to both the economy and illegal immigration, 50% of conservatives say
they trust Trump, compared with 35% among moderates on each of those issues.
The poll finds evidence of a slight
gender gap in support for Trump, who has faced public questions recently about
his treatment of women, though he does lead the field among both men and women.
Trump stands at 27% among Republican men and at 20% among Republican women, a
gap just outside the margin of error for each group.
Bush is second among both men and women,
standing just a hair behind Trump at 17% among women but well behind among men
(10% of GOP men back Bush, no other candidate reaches double digits).
Trump is less trusted by women to handle
the economy (50% of male GOP voters say they trust Trump most, 40% of women
voters do) and slightly less so on social issues (21% among men, 15% among
women).
But there is no gender gap among
Republicans on favorable views of Trump: 60% of Republican women voters have a
positive impression as do 57% of GOP men. Outside the Republican Party, women
are less apt to hold a favorable view of Trump, just 17% of women voters who
are independents or Democratic leaners see him favorably, compared with 29% of non-Republican
male voters.
New poll: Trump takes lead in Iowa, Walker
drops
02:00
There is also an education divide in
Trump's support, with those Republican voters who lack college degrees more apt
to back Trump than college graduates: 28% among the non-college graduate group
vs. 16% among those who have graduated from college.
Few other demographic divides emerge in
Republican preferences, according to the poll. Rand Paul fares best among
voters under age 50, 10% among the younger group vs. 1% among the older one,
and supporters of the Tea Party movement are more likely to favor Ted Cruz, 10%
vs. 2% among those Republicans who do not support the tea party.
Among the most enthusiastic Republican
voters, the mix of candidates at the top of the field changes. While Trump
holds the top slot across the board with the support of roughly a quarter of
Republican voters regardless of their level of enthusiasm, the group of
candidates following Trump shifts among those who say they are "extremely
enthusiastic" about the election. In that group, Carson has 13%, Rubio
11%, boosting both ahead of Bush, who holds 9% and ties with Cruz for 4th,
Kasich holds 8% support and Fiorina and Walker tie at 7%.
Bush has his best showing among those
who are least enthusiastic. Among the group that says they are somewhat
enthusiastic or less, 23% back Trump, 16% Bush, 10% Walker, with all others at 6%
or less.
The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by
telephone Aug. 13-16 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. The sample
included 466 registered voters who are Republicans or independents who lean
toward the Republican Party. For results among those Republican voters, the
margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. For results
among the full sample, it is 3 points.
Comments
Trump
appeals to most Republicans and blue collar voters and has the best chance for
a landslide.
Trump
will inherit voters from the other candidates as the weeks and months go
by. He is successfully selling most of
the same policy changes held by his most conservative competitors. Democrats will try to torpedo Trump, but so
far their attacks are not working.
Rand Paul
supporters will probably stand with Rand until they are certain that Trump will
be the nominee. If Trump stumbles, they
will work to get old Trump supporters to back Rand. The same goes for Ted Cruz supporters. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz hold the highest
legislative scores as proof of how they would govern. Other candidates viewed
as Constitutional Conservatives include Ben Carson, Scott Walker and Bobby
Jindal. They are all backup candidates now.
Norb
Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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