The Speaker has fought off challenges before, but a new push to remove
John Boehner could finally do the trick.
(Daily Beast) – It’s
hard to imagine why anybody would want to be the Speaker of the House—which is
perhaps the primary reason John Boehner has survived this long. But
now his tenure may be coming to an end. Rumors are swirling that Boehner’s
speakership is in danger, and my sources corroborate this.
If Boehner makes
even a minor misstep in the next few weeks, he will likely face a challenge—and
sources indicate it would be a very close vote. In fact, right now I’d put the
odds at about 50-50 that he goes down. That’s because the real goal of House
conservatives right now isn’t to defund Planned Parenthood or shut down the
government—their goal is to get rid of Boehner.
The rebels are going
to wait to see what Boehner does regarding defunding Planned Parenthood in the
next continuing resolution. He will have to make a choice between keeping the
government open and pleasing House conservatives, and neither of these options
are very appealing. Shutting down the government could only hurt the GOP,
but Boehner’s own political survival is at stake if he appears to be
capitulating to the Democrats.
Boehner is also under
pressure to take a strong stand against the Iran deal. As of now, the
House is expected to vote on three measures: disapproval of the deal, a
statement condemning the White House for not disclosing side deals, and a bill
banning the Obama administration from lifting sanctions. “We’ll use every tool
at our disposal to stop, slow and delay this agreement,” Boehner said on
Thursday.
Screwing up any of
these votes would also invite a challenge from the more conservative wing of
the chamber. The fact that these legislative gambits are unworkable is a moot
point. The revolutionaries—which include the usual suspects from the fiscally
conservative Freedom Caucus like Reps. Mark Meadows (who filed a motion to
remove Boehner), Jim Jordan, Justin Amash, and Mick Mulvaney—seem to have
decided this is the time to strike.
Of
course, Boehner has already survived multiple coup attempts, but this one
appears to be the most serious. Remember that back in January he came close to
losing his speakership—and that was a very unorganized and sloppy effort where
no real opponent emerged.
During that half-assed
attempt, 25 House Republicans voted against Boehner. This time, it would take
roughly 30 Republicans of the 246-member GOP conference to topple him—assuming
Democrats also don’t support him (there are 188 Democrats in the House; Boehner
needs a total of 218 votes to survive).
And this is where the
Planned Parenthood issue becomes important. The 25 Republicans who voted
against Boehner the last time came mostly from the Freedom Caucus, which is
primarily focused on limiting the size of government. But the abortion issue
provides an opportunity to possibly peel off some additional social
conservatives who feel strongly about the issue. At which point, the question
remains—what comes next? There are several possibilities:
Option 1: Democrats
join with moderate Republicans and elect a moderate Republican compromise
candidate. Hard-line conservatives ignore the fact that we could end up with a
Speaker to the left of Boehner, but this is an entirely plausible outcome (it
routinely happens in the Texas House.) If this happens, expect someone
like Republican Rep. Charlie Dent, who is respected on both sides of the aisle,
to emerge. Of course, in this scenario, House conservatives would be even more
marginalized.
Option 2: Boehner gets
enough Democratic votes to remain speaker. This is certainly possible; in the
past, Democrats have vowed to support him. This will either liberate
Boehner to take on the Tea Party, or weaken him considerably. It’s hard to
predict what happens next.
Option 3: An
acceptable and respected conservative like Jeb Hensarling or Tom Price emerges
as speaker. Why these two? First, Paul Ryan doesn’t seem to want the gig, so
that leaves us with only a few options for someone who fits in the Venn diagram
of being enough of an outsider, well liked, and sufficiently conservative. Hensarling
has long been viewed as the guy in waiting. He led the fight against earmarks
and the export-import bank. And Tom Price is the budget committee chairman who narrowly
lost his bid against Cathy McMorris Rogers for chairman of the House GOP
conference (Ryan and Hensarling both backed Price.) This would clearly be the
best option for conservatives but is hardly a panacea. Every Speaker will
eventually disappoint the base when he predictably can’t deliver on all of
their policy preferences.
Option 4: House
Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy wins the speakership, but nothing changes. It’s
possible he simply moves up the ladder. This would be an unsatisfying
resolution; you cut off the beast’s head and another grows back. Furthermore,
McCarthy is viewed by many as a political animal who lacks core principles.
So, despite his being
next in line, McCarthy’s ascension seems somewhat unlikely. McCarthy has shown
little daylight between him and Boehner. What is more, sources suspect his
support is a mile wide but an inch deep. Is anyone that loyal
to him?
Option 5: Donald Trump
for Speaker (remember, it doesn’t have to be a member of the House). I’m
joking, but only a little.
The bottom line is
that this is suddenly real. The fact that there have been false alarms before
doesn’t mean that this time might not be the time. Conservatives have convinced
themselves that the Republican leadership is the problem – that much of Obama’s
liberal agenda could have been stopped if their leaders only fought as hard as
Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.
In the movie A
Few Good Men, Tom Cruise’s character says that jury trials are always about
“assigning blame.” Politics is often the same. It almost doesn’t matter if
Boehner deserves this fate; someone has to pay. And since we
can’t seem to make Obama pay—can’t beat him at the ballot box, are impotent
when it comes to stopping his executive orders and agreements—then we will have
to take it out on somebody we can punish. This is the political version of
kicking the dog after a tough day at work—and it might cost Boehner his
speakership.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/10/will-republicans-move-to-unseat-boehner.html
http://www.teaparty.org/plot-topple-boehner-go-118754/
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