Washington Post) – A majority of Republican
registered voters want either Donald Trump or Ben Carson to be their party’s
2016 presidential nominee, according to two new national polls from
the Washington Post-ABC News and the New York Times-CBS News.
Let that sink in for a
minute. Neither Trump, who made his name as a real estate mogul and
reality star, nor Carson, a renowned pediatric neurosurgeon, have run for any office
prior to their presidential candidacies. Both men have staked the entirety of
their campaigns on the idea that they are the furthest thing possible from a
traditional politician. And it is working for both of them. Big time.
While the rise of
Trump tends to dominate the headlines, polls like these from The Post and the
Times provide a reminder of the big picture here for the Republican Party.
And that big picture is simple: The GOP establishment is on the run, and there
are few signs that its members have any sort of coherent strategy to deal with
the massive uprising within its ranks.
It’s not only that 53
percent of Republican voters (in the Post poll) or 50 percent of GOP voters (in
the Times poll) say they are for either Trump or Carson. It’s also how few
Republican respondents in those same surveys say they are for the establishment
choices. Jeb Bush, the man everyone assumed would be the race’s front-runner,
clocks in at 8 percent in the Post poll and 6 percent (!) in the Times poll.
Scott Walker, the guy who was supposed to challenge Bush for the top spot,
takes 2 percent in both the Times and Post polls. Two.
The trend line for
those establishment picks is even more troubling. Back in March, Bush clocked
in at 21 percent in the Post-ABC poll, while Walker took 13 percent. Both men
have collapsed as Trump and Carson have soared.
And it’s not just in
the ballot test where the GOP establishment’s problems are on display. Almost
three in four people in the Post poll say that most politicians cannot be
trusted — including almost half (48 percent) who feel that way strongly.
Two-thirds say the U.S. political system is “dysfunctional” — again with nearly
half (46 percent) feeling that way strongly.
There’s also evidence
outside of the presidential primary of the upheaval within the Republican Party
at the moment. The House Freedom Caucus, which is essentially the tea party
movement in Congress, has made clear that it is ready to make a real attempt to
overthrow Speaker John Boehner if it doesn’t get what it wants in this
legislative session — most especially on stripping all federal funds to Planned
Parenthood in the upcoming shutdown debate.
As Politico’s Jake
Sherman and John Bresnahan wrote of Boehner this month:
Figures in his
close-knit circle of allies are starting to privately wonder whether he can
survive an all-but-certain floor vote this fall to remain speaker of the House.
And, for the first time, many top aides and lawmakers in the House do not
believe he will run for another term as House leader in 2017.
The Boehner era might
be coming to an end, they say.
There’s a tendency in
official (read: political) Washington to dismiss the threat posed to the likes
of Bush and Boehner by people like Trump. That dismissiveness is born of a
belief that that GOP electorate will, eventually, wise up and realize that
Donald Trump or Ben Carson is not the party’s strongest candidate to take down
Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Recent history would
seem to affirm that confidence. Mitt Romney — not Herman Cain or Michele
Bachmann — was the Republican presidential nominee in 2012. John Boehner — not
Steve King or Louie Gohmert — has been speaker since Republicans took control
of the House in 2010. Mitch McConnell — not Ted Cruz — is the Senate majority
leader.
But if Trump’s
rise — and his ability to sustain it — has taught me anything, it’s
that recent history (or even less-recent history) is an imperfect guide to
the future in an age of anger and anxiety in the electorate that we’ve not
seen in decades (if ever). Things I thought I knew as facts about how politics
and campaigns work have been upended by Trump and the anti-everything sentiment
he has tapped into.
I’m not the only one.
It’s clear that Jeb Bush had zero interest in engaging Trump in any way, shape
or form — assuming/hoping that the real estate star would flame out on his own.
But despite some gaffes that would kill most candidacies, Trump has maintained
his position at the top of primary polls, forcing Jeb into the uncomfortable
spot of trying to fight with someone who doesn’t play by any rules.
It’s possible, of
course, that by the time voters actually vote in Iowa, New Hampshire and South
Carolina in February and beyond, the “normal” order will be restored.
Republican voters will have vented their anger and started to think more with
their heads and less with their hearts.
For the GOP
establishment, the best they can do is wait and hope that such a transformation
takes place. That’s not exactly operating from a position of political
strength.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/15/the-republican-establishment-is-in-deep-trouble/
http://www.teaparty.org/washington-post-republican-establishment-deep-trouble-119307/?promocode=tpo-4951976&utm_source=newsemail&utm _medium=email&utm_campaign=tpo-4951976
Comments
About 75%
of our US Senators and Congressmen vote for Bills that threaten our economy,
our freedom and our sovereignty. Half of them are RINOs who campaign like
conservatives and spend like liberals and they need to be replaced. Look at Conservative Review Scorecard to see
how many get an F grade for scores under 70%. They need to be replaced by
candidates who will score much higher and will actually restore the US
Constitution (as written).
Norb
Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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