Tuesday, May 12, 2015

TPP through the looking-glass

Trade bill fate in doubt as debate kicks off
Both sides are racing to sway lawmakers on President Barack Obama’s top priority. by Lauren French, Burgess Everett and John Bresnahan 5/11/15 5:05 AM EDT
A controversial trade bill is well shy of the votes needed to pass the House and faces a difficult vote in the Senate as the debate in Congress kicks off in earnest this week.
Congressional sources say that fewer than 20 House Democrats currently back giving President Barack Obama increased powers to cut trade deals — a top priority of the White House and the business lobby. And with Senate Democrats vowing to stall consideration of Obama’s request for fast-track trade authority possibly for weeks, Republicans in both chambers face a high hurdle to get the measure through Congress.
Each side is projecting confidence that it will prevail. Indeed, this is a rare debate in Congress in which ideological lines are so scrambled that the outcome is truly anyone’s guess.
The Senate is scheduled to vote Tuesday on whether to take up the bill, and Minority Leader Harry Reid is leaning on his caucus to block the chamber from doing so until it first deals with reform of government surveillance programs and transportation legislation. The procedural vote is as much a barometer of the retiring Reid’s hold on his divided caucus as it is a gauge of support for the trade bill. That’s because some Democrats who back the trade bill are nonetheless expected to support the Nevada Democrat’s bid to force the GOP’s hand on the other measures.
ELIZA COLLINS  http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/trade-bill-obama-debate-117797.html#ixzz3ZsWjkH4v  Opponents and advocates of the trade bill still regard the Tuesday vote as important. If Democrats are able to stop Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) from bringing the trade legislation to the Senate floor until June, it will give liberal and labor groups more time to mobilize opposition in Congress and complicate Obama’s efforts to clinch the massive Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.
Senate Republicans are plainly worried about the effect of Reid’s procedural gambit. “I don’t even want to speculate on that,” Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said last week.
Nonetheless, the Senate is expected to eventually approve the so-called trade promotion authority bill — which would allow Obama to submit unamendable trade deals to Congress for up-or-down votes — whenever it comes up for a final vote. The bigger drama may turn out to be in the House, where the overwhelming majority of Democrats and a large contingent of Republicans oppose the measure.
Passage of the bill there will put pressure on House GOP leadership to schedule a quick vote, even though congressional sources predict supporters in the House need at least 20 more votes to pass the legislation.
Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told lawmakers that the House will likely take up TPA in May after the Senate acts, but he didn’t allot a specific time on the calendar. But he and Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) have their work cut out for them.
Obama slams Warren on trade comments ALI BRELAND http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/trade-bill-obama-debate-117797.html#ixzz3ZsVrSwlq Upward of 60 House Republicans are expected to vote against TPA despite a push from Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) — a key policy figure within the Republican Conference — for support. That means Obama and Boehner would need 30 or more Democrats to back the bill — a tough sell within a caucus that is both deeply skeptical of labor provisions and pushing for the inclusion of enforceable currency language in the pending Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement.
Still, those close to Ryan are confident Republicans can round up enough votes to get the trade authority bill over the 217-vote threshold. Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) is setting up small meetings with Republicans and Ryan for this week as part of a push to bring skeptical GOP lawmakers on board. “The more members learn about the bill — and how it empowers Congress, not the president — the more confident we grow,” said Ways and Means spokesman Brendan Buck.
Republicans have been counting votes for more than a week but still have to persuade a faction of Republicans who are hell-bent on denying Obama any additional executive authority — even on trade, a policy that normally enjoys broad support from the GOP. McCarthy said Thursday that Republicans need to weigh the economic boost that trade provides the U.S. and look past their distrust of Obama.

Obama on trade deal: 'Let's just do it' NICK GASS http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/trade-bill-obama-debate-117797.html#ixzz3ZsY0xzeT “We cannot hold ourselves back because someone does not care for the person in the White House. We have a check and balance,” McCarthy said. “Ronald Reagan did not stop and not move forward because the Democrats controlled the House and Senate. He moved forward each and every day and he took what he could get and came back the next day for what he didn’t get.”
Still, the larger problem is within the Democratic caucus.
Lawmakers such as Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) have been fiercely whipping members against fast track for a year. She brought 151 Democrats together to oppose the legislation last year and predicted on Friday that if the House were to vote on the measure this month, it would fail.
“I’m very confident, so what does that tell you?” she said. “We have overwhelming opposition to TPA.”
Aides think fewer than 20 Democrats are prepared to sign onto the TPA legislation, and both sides are battling over a pool of members sources put at close to 40.
Democrats have had their ears bent by both sides for months. The Obama administration has been holding briefings for the past three months for members to sell the trade deal. And on Thursday, United States Trade Representative Michael Froman and other top Obama administration officials will brief lawmakers on the trans-Pacific trade deal.
Last week, Obama hosted a group of Senate Democrats at the White House to shore up support, and he has invited House Democrats for policy discussions on trade. He’s courting members of the Congressional Black Caucus and for weeks has sent top deputies to Capitol Hill to attempt to secure more votes.
The White House offensive is drawing rare praise of Obama from Republicans.
 
Even Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) has refused to say that he will vote to open debate on the trade legislation on Tuesday — a startling development to Republicans who thought they had a deal with Wyden to move the fast-track trade bill alongside a measure to provide aid to workers hurt by the free trade agreement.
But in interviews, Wyden and other Democrats say they want more, including greater assurances that Congress will also renew a duty-free trade program with African countries and a trade enforcement package that the GOP views as further complicating the bill.
“We’re still in discussions about what that really means,” Wyden said of the vote to open debate.
Democrats say McConnell has not yet sketched out how or whether various trade-related bills will be rolled together. That’s a potential sticking point for Democrats, who are insisting that four pieces of trade legislation be taken up as a package.
No matter how McConnell handles those bills, their complexity practically ensures the debate won’t wrap up before the Memorial Day recess, no matter the result on Tuesday.

Comments
You can’t tell the Republicans from the Democrats on the TPP.  Obviously, the unions have joined the Tea Party in objecting to off-shoring all the rest of our jobs. The RINOs like McConnell are obviously planning their retirement. The far Left Democrats like Sanders and Warren don’t like the TPP.  The World’s turned Upside-Down. I hope the TPP tanks. If Obama wants it, vote NO. No Fast-Track on anything.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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