It had all of
the makings of a classic gotcha moment.
At the start of
the August 6 Republican presidential debate in Ohio, Fox
News moderator Brett Baier asked,
“Is there anyone on stage, and can I see hands, who is unwilling tonight to
pledge your support to the eventual nominee of the Republican Party and pledge
to not run an independent campaign against that person?”
Businessman
Donald Trump, the current GOP frontrunner, raised his hand. For any other
candidate, such a position might be fatal. But for Trump, it plays to his
campaign theme of being the political outsider running against the Washington,
D.C. Republican establishment.
Baier noted,
“Experts say an independent run would almost certainly hand the race over to
Democrats and likely another Clinton. You can’t say tonight that you can make
that pledge?”
“I cannot say,”
Trump said, adding, “I have to respect the person that, if it’s not me, the
person that wins, if I do win, and I’m leading by quite a bit, that’s what I
want to do. I can totally make that pledge. If I’m the nominee, I will pledge I
will not run as an independent. But — and I am discussing it with everybody,
but I’m, you know, talking about a lot of leverage. We want to win, and we will
win. But I want to win as the Republican. I want to run as the Republican
nominee.”
Later
on the Hannity Show, Trump further explained his
position to host Sean Hannity, “If they don’t treat me well, Sean, why should I
make that pledge? At this moment, it’s great leverage, and I might as well use
it.” Trump added, “I just want to be treated well and treated with respect.”
In other words,
holding out the possibility of an independent presidential run frees up Trump
to pursue the campaign he envisions. And so far, it appears to be working, as
Trump has rocketed to a lead in the
national poll, and now appears to be leading
substantially in early states Iowa, New
Hampshire, and South
Carolina.
The current
political environment has seen declining party identification over the past
decade. People have become disillusioned with the two-party system that seems
to produce the same outcomes regardless of who is in power. That is the heart
of Trump’s appeal on issues like illegal immigration and trade.
In particular,
Republican Party identification has collapsed, research
from Gallup reveals. Self-identified Republicans have
dropped from a high of 39 percent in September 2004 to just 23 percent today.
In the meantime, that decline directly coincided to the uptrend in
independents, from 28 percent to 46 percent today.
Sure, Trump
could be bluffing. But consider the benefit of raising his hand at the debate
in a state like, say, New Hampshire. It is an open primary allowing
independents to vote. In
the latest poll from Gravis, he was up by
17 points there.
Running as an
independent for president, then — even while running in a party primary — is
seen as an asset by voters. Especially independent voters.
It makes him
that much more appealing as a candidate who, he can say credibly, will not be
controlled by the party establishment. And, one cannot discount how many new
potential voters he is bringing to the table in the process. The August 6
debate, with
24 million viewers, was the most highly-rated
presidential primary debate in history.
So, what’s
supposed to be a negative and an act of political suicide — refusing to rule
out an independent run — turns out to be a net asset. Trump is getting all the
benefits of running as an independent, all the while leveraging the known
Republican brand and the resources that come with running in the party’s
primary.
It represents
Trump’s trump card. He identified it as leverage. Meaning, if Republican Party
insiders want to forestall such a run, they had better, in the least, be respectful
of his candidacy or, at a maximum, help make him the party’s nominee. Otherwise,
who knows what Trump might do?
Robert Romano
is the senior editor of Americans for Limited Government.
http://netrightdaily.com/2015/08/the-trump-card/
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