Sinking Solomon Islands and climate link 'exaggerated',
admits study's author, 5/10/16
A new study published in Environmental Research Letters shows that
some low-lying reef islands in the Solomon Islands are being gobbled up by "extreme events, seawalls
and inappropriate development, rather than sea level rise alone." Despite headlines claiming that man-made climate change has caused five Islands (out of nearly a thousand) to
disappear from rising sea levels, a closer inspection of the study reveals the
true cause is natural, and the report's lead author says many of the headlines
have been 'exaggerated' to ill-effect.
Dr. Simon Albert, the report's
co-author told the Guardian today that numerous media outlets, like
the Washington Post and NY Times and Think Progress, have misinterpreted their
work by trying to link sea level rise with climate change. According to Albert,
the researchers did not study climate change and how it influences shoreline
erosion and submersion of certain low-lying islands.
That didn't stop numerous mainstream
media outlets from jumping to the erroneous conclusion that these five sunken
islands were further proof of climate change. This completely misconstrues the
actual science and what the study really says, Albert said. "The links
between climate change and the sinking of five islands in the Pacific Ocean
have been exaggerated," he says.
"All these headlines are
certainly pushing things a bit towards the 'climate change has made islands
vanish' angle. I would prefer slightly more moderate titles that focus on
sea-level rise being the driver rather than simply 'climate change',"
Albert told the Guardian, which also ran catastrophic headlines
about the report when it first came out on Friday.
Indeed, the authors even write in
the study's abstract there is "limited research" and that the
majority of shoreline changes and submersion events occurred over extended
periods of time. The islands affected were primarily caused from natural
weather events (storms, typhoons), building villages a foot or two above sea
level, and poorly constructed sea walls. Globally, sea level rise has remained
consistent at roughly 2-3 millimeters per year since leaving the last
glaciation, and has actually slowed down in the last twenty years.
Sea level rise is also different
depending on where you are on the planet. That has to do with thermal expansion
(as the ocean warms up, it expands), sea floor 'buildings' that stretch
hundreds of miles and actually push up the overlying water near the surface,
and high-energy wave action from trade winds and storms in the Pacific.
In the Solomon Islands, sea level
rise has been rising at roughly 7 mm per year. Some, Albert says, may be from
climate change and the rest by natural climatic cycles. They only studied the
latter, so he was surprised to read all the headlines linking climate change,
which wasn't studied.
One such natural climate cycle is
the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which "involves changing sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) in the North Pacific Ocean." Well-established research has shown
that "decadal-scale variations in climate result from interactions between
the ocean and the atmosphere." PDO variations alternate between two
phases: a cool phase and a warm phase. Depending on which phase the northern
Pacific is in will strongly affect "precipitation patterns along the
Pacific Coast of North America."
The higher-than-normal sea level
rise in the Solomon Islands chain is driven, Albert says, in large part by
intense trade winds pushing water up into the western Pacific. He notes these
trade winds are a "natural cycle but also the recent intensification is
related to atmospheric warming." The so-called extra sea level rise may be
driven by climate change, but it is poorly understood, and was not included in
the study.
In fact, other areas of the Pacific
Ocean are rising at the global average. Other studies show no land loss using
comparative photos of islands from World War II. There is even research showing that atolls in the central Pacific are actually
getting bigger.
In this new study, Albert et al used
aerial and satellite imagery dating back to 1947 and focused on only 33
islands. To put that in perspective, there are 922 islands that make up the
Solomon Island chain, and only 347 inhabited. The country is so large, it spans
the southwestern Pacific and runs in parallel chains from northwest to
southeast.
The researchers also relied on
first-hand accounts from local villagers, and found only five vegetated reef
islands that have been submerged by increased sea level rise and shoreline
erosion. They also found shoreline erosion at six islands, and at least two
that required relocation of communities.
Albert says his study of a limited
area may be a forewarning of things to come, and the dire headlines and quotes
used by many mainstream media outlets came from an opinion piece the authors wrote at 'The Conversation.' In most cases,
journalists didn't even bother to contact the researchers to see what, exactly,
the study was saying.
Recently the NY Times ran a 10,000 word essay on this very issue over the
weekend. It showed a growing pattern of inexperienced twenty-something reporters
who needed to be spoon-fed complex information. The high-ranking official being
profiled was President Obama's deputy national security advisor Ben Rhodes, and
he said he was like a "ventriloquist for reporters," essentially
creating an "echo chamber."
Rhodes also told the NY Times that
reporters have to "call us to explain to them what’s happening."
Extrapolate that to global warming, a very complicated topic and an Obama legacy issue, and
you see a troubling pattern emerging. Reporters aren't actually reading studies
but rather are simply regurgitating what those in positions of
"authority" tell them.
Now Melchior Mataki, chair of the
Solomon Islands' National Disaster Council, is requesting millions of dollars
from the climate slush fund set up by the United Nations: "This ultimately
calls for support from development partners and international financial
mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund," Mataki said. "This support should include nationally driven
scientific studies to inform adaptation planning to address the impacts of
climate change in Solomon Islands."
President Obama has already diverted
millions of taxpayer dollars into the fund without approval from congress
because of the way the last spending bill was
worded. Now that Albert has set the record straight, but he still understands
(and justifies) the use of misleading headlines. It also won't be the last time
the media uses a misleading headline to
drive home a legacy issue.
Albert also says he understands
"why these more dramatic titles are used and it does help bring attention
to the issue" that he firmly believes will become a "major issue for
the islands in the second half of this century from climate change." In
other words, the ends justify the means for a possible, and unlikely scenario,
occurring sometime after 2050.
http://www.examiner.com/article/sinking-solomon-islands-and-climate-link-exaggerated-admits-study-s-author
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