White House Watch: Down to the Wire?
Rasmussen, 10/19/16
Dead even. With nearly one-in-10
voters still looking beyond the top four candidates or undecided and less than
three weeks to go until Election Day.
Today’s Rasmussen Reports White
House Watch telephone and online survey shows Democrat Hillary Clinton and
Republican Donald Trump each picking up 42% support among Likely U.S. Voters.
Seven percent (7%) still prefer Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, while one
percent (1%) opt for Green Party nominee Jill Stein. But three percent (3%)
like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To
see survey question wording, click here.)
Yesterday, it
was Clinton 42%, Trump 41%. Clinton edged back into a two-point lead at the
beginning of the week after falling behind by two at the
end of last week.
Rasmussen Reports updates its White
House Watch survey daily Monday
through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500
Likely U.S. Voters.
Trump’s performance in the second
debate improved his fortunes after the release of a devastating 11-year-old
video that showed him making graphic sexual comments about women.
Clinton in turn has been battling
revelations from WikiLeaks’ release of hundreds of internal campaign e-mails
and is now facing new questions about her handling of classified information
while secretary of State.
The two major party candidates have
their final debate tonight. Eighty-four
percent (84%) of voters are certain already how they will vote, and among these
voters, Clinton and Trump are tied at 47% apiece. Among voters who could still
change their minds between now and Election Day, it’s Clinton 35%, Trump 34%,
Johnson 27% and Stein with four percent (4%).
(Want a free
daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our
polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
Most voters aren’t buying the story
that the Russians are trying to manipulate the election for Trump but think the U.S. media is trying to swing things for
Clinton.
Clinton has 80% support among
Democrats, while Trump earns 79% of the Republican vote. Trump leads again
among voters not affiliated with either major party. Unaffiliateds remain less
certain of their vote than
Democratic and GOP voters are.
Trump posts a double-digit lead
among men, while Clinton holds a similar lead among women. Women are more
likely at this point to be sure of their vote. The older the voter, the more likely he or she
is to support Trump and to be certain of their vote. Trump is ahead among whites and other minority
voters but remains far behind among blacks. Just 24% of all voters say they’ve changed the way they were going to vote after
watching the debates between presidential candidates.
The nature of U.S. involvement in the
ongoing war in Syria has been one of the key foreign policy issues this
presidential election season, and most voters now favor a no-fly zone in the
embattled country despite increasing concern that it may bring the United States into a military
confrontation with Russia.
Trump views radical Islamic
terrorism as the number one threat to the United States and says Russia would
make a good ally in fighting that threat. Republicans and Trump supporters
strongly agree that radical Islam is the bigger threat, but Democrats and Clinton voters tend to rate Russia as
just as big a danger.
Most voters opposed President Obama's plan to bring
10,000 Syrian refugees to America, saying it was a national security threat
risk, but Obama did it anyway, citing
humanitarian concerns and the pressures these immigrants were putting on our
European allies. Most now oppose his plan to bring even more of those refugees here
next year, but Clinton wants to dramatically
increase that number. Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum
Members only.
The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters
was conducted on October 16-18, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of
sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse
Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct19
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