U.S. Oil Vanishing From
Chinese Tariffs Reveals America's Clout, 8/9/18, Bloomberg
Soaring Imports - China's
imports of U.S. crude have surged since the start of 2017. U.S. Census Bureau,
Energy Information Administration Before the tariff kerfuffle, U.S. crude
exports to China had risen to 15 million barrels in June, the highest volume
in data going back to 1996, according to U.S. Census Bureau and Energy
Information Administration data. That made the Asian country the biggest buyer
of American supply.
Rival Purchases - While China’s Sinopec was avoiding purchases, regional rivals including Indian Oil Corp., Thailand’s PTT Pcl, Taiwan’s Formosa Petrochemical Corp., South Korea’s GS Caltex Corp. and SK Innovation Co. have been buying up American crude cargoes for delivery in the coming months.
Rising Costs - A decline in operations at China’s independent refiners has raised prices of some fuels in the nation, according to Li Li, an analyst with Shanghai-based commodities researcher ICIS China. “If major refiners, who are U.S. oil buyers, incur a deficit, it’s possible the domestic market will face a fuel shortage as well as rising crude feed-stock costs,” Li said.
Energy Security - In fact, President Xi Jinping is urging China’s state-owned energy giants to boost domestic oil and gas output as the country’s dependence on imports grows. The nation’s plans to establish its own crude benchmark have faltered.
Latest China tariff list spares
crude and includes only fuels
Regional rivals were buying U.S. crude as China shunned supply
The removal of U.S. crude from
goods targeted by Chinese tariffs is a sign that America
has become too big to ignore in the oil market.
Less than two months
after threatening to impose levies on
imports of U.S. crude, the world’s biggest oil buyer has now spared the
commodity. Only fuels such as diesel, gasoline, propane will be hit with duties
on Aug. 23, according to China’s
commerce ministry. That’s after the nation’s buyers, including top
refiner Sinopec, began shunning American supplies to avoid the risk of tariffs.
China’s original plan to
target U.S. crude came at an inopportune time for the country’s buyers.
Sinopec’s trading unit, Unipec, was embroiled in a dispute with Saudi Arabia,
saying the producer’s prices were costly and cutting purchases just as it was boosting American imports. Two months
on, refiners were faced with the risk of supply disruptions from Iran to
Venezuela and paying more to take advantage of booming U.S. output.
“The U.S. has been and will
remain the main source of incremental crude production globally,” said Den
Syahril, an analyst at industry consultant FGE. “With several new refineries
starting up over the next couple of years, China would thus be wary of taking a
decision that could end up severely hurting its domestic refining industry.”
The shale boom, meanwhile,
lifted U.S. output to an unprecedented 11 million barrels a day last month,
establishing it in the ranks of other top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The increase has also weakened the cost of American supply relative to Middle
East benchmark Dubai and Atlantic Basin marker Brent, raising the allure of
U.S. shipments to Asia -- the world’s biggest oil consuming region.
Wednesday’s decision to omit
crude will give Unipec the chance to bring crude cargoes loading from the U.S.
in June and July into China without incurring additional costs, Michal Meidan,
an analyst at industry consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., wrote in an emailed note
on Aug. 8. However, she cautioned that refiners in the Asian nation may still
be wary of boosting American oil purchases because it may yet be targeted with
tariffs if tensions escalate.
The Chinese government
decided to change the list of tariffs after consulting with industry
associations and corporations to protect the interests of domestic consumers
and companies, according to a statement posted on the Ministry of Finance’s website.
American sanctions that will
target oil exports from Iranstarting in November are
another risk. Concern is growing that U.S. President Donald Trump’s measures
will curb the OPEC producer’s shipments at a time when production from another
group member, Venezuela, is also dwindling in the midst of an economic meltdown. Both the producers are
suppliers to China.
“With oil from Iran and
Venezuela at risk, U.S. crude is offering Chinese refiners a good and abundant
alternative,” said Sophie Shi, a Beijing-based analyst with consultant IHS
Markit Ltd. “Imagine if this ideal resource was cut off. That would leave China
solely dependent on Saudi Arabia, which seems too risky.”
West Texas Intermediate
futures, the U.S. benchmark, traded little changed at $66.67 a barrel at 8:51
a.m. Singapore time. Brent crude, the marker for more than half the world’s
oil, was down 0.3 percent at $71.86.
Daniel Hynes, a Sydney-based
analyst at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said he believes
China will apply tariffs on American crude only as a last resort in the trade
war between the world’s two biggest economies.
As for the fuels such as
gasoline and diesel on the list, China imports negligible quantities of those
commodities from the U.S., and the levies are unlikely to cause a major
disruption to global trade flows.
— With
assistance by Serene Cheong, Sarah Chen, Heesu Lee, Sharon Cho, and Sheela
Tobben
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody
GA Tea Party Leader
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