British voters just shattered
political convention in a stunning repudiation of the ruling establishment.
Donald Trump is betting America is about to do the same. Voters in the UK did
more than reject the European Union and topple their pro-EU Prime Minister
David Cameron in a referendum Thursday.
They also set off a cascade of
events that could spark global economic chaos, remake the Western world,
reverberate through November's presidential election and challenge U.S.
security for years to come.
The referendum campaign -- just like
the U.S. election -- has boiled with populist anger, fear-mongering by politicians,
hostility towards distant political elites and resurgent nationalism, and
exposed a visceral feeling in the electorate that ordinary voters have lost
control of the politics that shape their own lives. Its success raises the
question of whether those forces will exert a similar influence in America in
November.
The presumptive Republican
presidential nominee, who arrived in the UK to visit his Scottish golf courses
just as the referendum result was announced, declared Friday that the U.S. is
next. Just arrived in
Scotland. Place is going wild over the vote. They took their country back, just
like we will take America back. No games!
"Come November, the American
people will have the chance to re-declare their independence. Americans will
have a chance to vote for trade, immigration and foreign policies that put our
citizens first," he said. "They will have the chance to reject
today's rule by the global elite, and to embrace real change that delivers a
government of, by and for the people."
Indeed, British voters delivered the
kind of crushing rejection of the political, business and media elites that
Trump has been railing against. Many people are equating BREXIT, and what is going on in
Great Britain, with what is happening in the U.S. People want their country
back!
The Brits also snubbed President
Barack Obama's warnings against voting to leave Europe and risked triggering a
global recession that would weaken already sluggish U.S. economic growth and
dampen the hopes of his chosen successor, Hillary Clinton.
In her first reaction to the news
from Britain, Clinton immediately took a swipe at Trump, though not by name.
She called for Americans to respond to the vote by pulling together "to
solve our challenges as a country, not tear each other down."
Clinton also noted the global
economic risks of the UK referendum, saying in a statement: "Our first
task has to be to make sure that the economic uncertainty created by these
events does not hurt working families here in America."
In a particularly striking
development, UK voters completely disregarded warnings from elite voices of the
consequences of tearing the political system that has largely delivered peace
and prosperity since World War II.
Similar warnings have been heard in
the U.S. election -- especially from Clinton and establishment politicians who
fear Trump's "America First" stance would send shockwaves through the
global system and see America pull back from its role as a guarantor of Western
security.
But in the UK this week, outsider
politicians seem to have carried just as much weight with many British voters
as more conventional fact-based arguments. World authorities like the IMF for
example warned about the consequences of a Brexit -- but voters went ahead and
voted to leave anyway.
Speaking to CNN, former British
Prime Minister Tony Blair described the Brexit result as a "big experiment
in insurgent politics."
He said the centre-left and
centre-right needed to "rediscover radical, powerful answers in a climate
driven by anger ... a revolt against what is seen as established wisdom, but
what is actually people making difficult decisions in difficult
circumstances."
There are, of course, several key
differences between the British referendum and America's looming election. The
UK vote was mostly about delivering a stunning and final blow to the country's
long and reluctant marriage with Europe and turned on a host of local factors
including extreme Euro-skepticism within the governing Conservative Party,
distrust of European politicians and institutions and disenchantment with
Britain's reduced place in the world.
But in a larger symbolic sense, the
referendum result, narrow as it was -- 52% to 48% -- demonstrated the potential
of voters to wield a stunning shock to the political system that can shatter
the logic and assumptions of conventional politics.
There's no guarantee that American
voters will show the same kind of rebelliousness and willingness to leap into
the unknown in November as a slim majority of Britons did on Thursday. And the
U.S. system of state-by-state races and an electoral college could mitigate against
some of the grassroots anger that exploded in a binary "Leave" or
"Remain" vote in Britain.
But events in Europe must trigger at
least some concern among Democrats. Pollsters in the UK underestimated the fury
of grassroots voters outside metropolitan areas in a way that could be mirrored
in the United States, where Clinton now enjoys a lead in national surveys.
Furthermore, "Brexit"
forces triumphed partly because the Labour Party could not deliver its
traditional working class voters in some big post-industrial cities for the
"Remain" campaign, despite the support of party leaders.
It is not a stretch to wonder
whether the kind of political message that was so powerful in the referendum --
featuring a harsh critique of free trade and a demands to "take our
country back" -- could prove just as effective among blue-collar workers
in rust belt states in the United States.
Certainly, it's a message that Trump
has been hammering with success all election season and is at the center of his
claims to be able to remake the U.S. electoral map. And the billionaire has
consistently bested Clinton when voters are asked who is best equipped to
handle the economy.
The immediate stock market contagion
unleashed by the referendum across the globe represented the worst equity
carnage since the start of the Great Recession in 2008.
If the losses prove short-lived, the
impact of the referendum on the U.S. economy and politics could be temporary. But
if "Brexit" ushers in a period of economic volatility across Europe that
begins to squelch growth, the U.S. economy could be badly affected --
complicating Clinton's bid to pull off the tough assignment of winning a third
consecutive White House term for the Democrats.
Trump would meanwhile seize on any
slowdown in the U.S. precipitated by Brexit to argue that Obama's economic
management is a failure and it is time to try something new.
But there are also warning signs for
Trump.
Though he was quick to claim a share
of the credit for the British political earthquake -- placing it in the context
of a revolt against global elites in which he sees himself as a major player --
a prolonged period of world turmoil could also work against the billionaire
former reality star.
Such an environment could bolster
Clinton's claims that a crisis is no time to choose a president who has no
experience of governing and that her pedigree as a former secretary of state
and relationships with leaders all over the world are a perfect fit for a
perilous moment.
The Democratic presumptive nominee
made that argument in her statement: "This time of uncertainty only
underscores the need for calm, steady, experienced leadership in the White
House to protect Americans' pocketbooks and livelihoods, to support our friends
and allies, to stand up to our adversaries, and to defend our interests."
Her campaign later issued a
fundraising appeal with that message, writing, "No matter what the
collective wisdom of our political punditry has to say between now and
November, Donald Trump has a real chance of winning this election."
Clinton's campaign worked hard to
demonstrate a contrast between Clinton and Trump as potential leaders in a time
of crisis. The Clinton camp also sought to downplay similarities between the
seething political scenes in the U.K. and the United States.
"It is important that we
recognize that this American election is about what is happening here in
America not what is happening in Yorkshire or in Cardiff," said Clinton's
senior adviser Jake Sullivan on a conference call.
Sullivan also rejected the idea that
Clinton could find herself overtaken by a similar populist tide in November,
saying she had spent months on the campaign trail and was intimately familiar
with the difficulties facing many working Americans.
RELATED: Trump hails Brexit, sees parallels
to his campaign The possible economic consequences
of Brexit in the short-term could be dwarfed by the geopolitical shakeup that
is now looming in the years to come. Britain's referendum has already set off
calls in Europe for similar separation votes in other Eurosceptic nations,
threatening to dismantle the economic and political union that has been a
pillar of transatlantic stability for 70 years and been a crucial partner for
the United States.
As the U.S. faces challenges to its
power in Asia from a rising China and in Europe from a recalcitrant Russia and
in the Middle East from a motley group of insurgent forces, Washington can
hardly afford the splintering of its co-guarantor of Western security.
In addition, the referendum looks
likely to result in the fracturing of America's closest historic ally, the
United Kingdom -- a factor that could be a diplomatic nightmare for the next
president.
In the hours after the vote, Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon
announced plans to draft new legislation to
allow a second independence referendum north of the border after pro-EU Scots
narrowly voted to stay in the United Kingdom in 2014. Though a Scottish
referendum may not take place for years, it will revive questions about a
neutering of British military power and the fate of Britain's Scotland-based
nuclear deterrent -- which nationalists opposed and is part of NATO's security
infrastructure -- that the next U.S. president will be forced to grapple with.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/24/politics/us-election-brexit-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/
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