by Martin Armstrong,
8/7/18.
It is fascinating to watch
how the bias in people just ensures not just that a sucker is born every minute
to replace the one that wises-up, but there are suckers who never learn from
experience and cling to their ideas no matter how much it costs them.
The U.S. dollar has been
climbing against major currencies for several months, with the dollar index
.DXY up is trading up about 2.84% for the year. It is true that the dollar has
strengthened since late 2015 as the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates
against a background of steady economic growth, slowly rising inflation and the
lowest U.S. unemployment rate since the 1960s.
But the strength in the
dollar is more than just interest rates. It is the prettiest of the three ugly
sisters as they say – US – Europe – Asia.
The Fed has raised rates
twice this year and is expected to raise rates a couple more times by year end
which may attract more foreign capital into the U.S. dollar with monetary
policy remaining loose to very insane in Europe and Japan.
We have the ECM, which has
destroyed the European bond market, frozen like a deal in headlights. It is
trapped and it realizes that it has been buying the debt of member states who
are now addicted to excessively low-interest rates. If the ECB actually stops
buying, we are looking at a major debt crisis in Europe as interest rates
explode exponentially.
However, their policy of
austerity has really oppressed the Greek economy and now they have their eyes
set on Italy which will more likely create a revolution before the Italian
accept going the way of Greeks – quietly into the night.
In Japan, there to they
have wiped out the bond market. The government actually bragged that they
bought 97% of the government debt auction. Hellow? That’s a good thing? The
Bank of Japan has reduced debt purchases for a third time in June 2018, taking
advantage of the recent stability in bond yields and the yen. At least Japan is
reducing its purchases whereas the ECB talks a good game, but cannot actually
do anything. The attempt to force austerity by the EU upon southern Europe is
tearing the system apart.
The dollar bottomed in
February 2018. It has yet to elect a Monthly Bullish Reversal. Trump has been
unusually vocal about the dollar, unlike most Presidents, following more in the
footsteps of Treasury officials. Trump has publicly been criticizing the
dollar’s strength several times. He obviously thinks a lower dollar is better
for trade. But the markets are going against Trump. You cannot “Make America
Great Again” without also strengthening the dollar especially when we still
have insanity in Europe economically and Japan still in never-never-land.
In a CNBC television
interview, Trump said he was concerned about the potential impact of a stronger
dollar on American exports. He also broke tradition by criticizing Federal
Reserve policy on raising interest rates, saying it takes away from the United
States’ “big competitive edge”. Trump has had no problem with deficit spending
hoping it would reduce the dollar to support trade and therefore jobs.
While investors and
traders have been concerned about the spending, they have been forced to
attribute some of the gains to the Trump administration’s tax cuts which are
bringing capital home. On the other hand, they see the tax cuts as widening the
fiscal deficit, and that they expect leads to borrowing more on the
government’s part. Then Trump’s imposition of import tariffs against China,
Europe, Mexico and Canada, they generally think will contribute to inflation.
But they fail to grasp that Trump is using Tariffs to force a better trade
deal.
So hang on to your hat.
The strength behind the dollar CANNOT be analyzed simply
by looking at the domestic situation. We are in a position of capital flight on
a global scale. All these arguments add up to nothing when capital begins to
flee from one economic crisis to another. Remember Herbert Hoover’s words from
1931. When we begin to see the first crack in Sovereign Debt, both in Emerging
Markets and inside the EU, it will be Kattie-bar-the-door!
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody
GA Tea Party Leader
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