EU referendum:
Poll reveals a massive swing towards Brexit Exclusive: polling
carried out for ‘The Independent’ shows that 55 per cent of UK voters
intend to vote for Britain to leave the EU in the 23 June
referendum by Andrew
Grice 6/12/16 @IndyPolitics 2434
comments
The campaign to take Britain out of the
EU has opened up a remarkable 10-point lead over the Remain camp,
according to an exclusive poll for The Independent.
The survey of 2,000 people by ORB found
that 55 per cent believe the UK should leave the EU (up four points since our last poll in
April), while 45 per cent want it to remain (down four points). These figures
are weighted to take account of people’s likelihood to vote. It is by far the
biggest lead the Leave camp has enjoyed since ORB began polling the EU issue
for The Independent a year ago, when it was Remain who
enjoyed a 10-point lead. Now the tables have turned.
Even when the findings are not weighted
for turnout, Leave is on 53 per cent (up three points since April) and Remain
on 47 per cent (down three). The online poll, taken on Wednesday and Thursday,
suggests the Out camp has achieved momentum at the critical time ahead of the 23 June referendum.
Differential turnout could
prove crucial. ORB found that 78 per cent of Leave supporters say they will
definitely vote – describing themselves as a “10” on a scale of 0-10, while
only 66 per cent of Remain supporters say the same. British public
knows very little about EU referendum, survey shows.
The results will heighten
fears in the Remain campaign that it is losing ground among Labor supporters,
who are seen as critical to securing victory for it. According to ORB, 56
per cent of people who voted for Labor at last year’s general election now back
Remain when turnout is taken into account, but a dangerously high 44 per cent
support Leave.
Only 38 per cent of Tory
voters endorse David Cameron’s stance by backing Remain, while 62 per cent
support Leave.
Many people seem ready to
vote for Brexit even though the poll shows they believe it involves some risk
and think the economy is more important than immigration – widely seen as the
Leave camp’s trump card.
The one crumb of comfort
for the Remain camp is that when people were asked to predict the referendum
result, the average figures were 52 per cent for Remain and 48 per cent for
Leave. This “wisdom of the crowd” polling proved accurate during Ireland’s
referendum on gay marriage last year. The most scaremongering arguments for
Brexit
The ORB survey highlights
the stark generational differences over the EU. Seven out of 10 people aged
18-24 back Remain and 30 per cent Leave. Support for Leave rises up the age
scale to 64 per cent among those aged 55 and over (figures weighted for
turnout). Crucially, just over half (56 per cent) of 18-24 year-olds say
they will definitely vote, compared to more than 80 per cent of those aged 55
and over.
Support for EU membership
is highest in Scotland, with 60 per cent backing Remain. But a majority of
people in every other region of Great Britain favor withdrawal when turnout is
taken into account. In London, seen as a strong area for the Remain campaign,
only 44 per cent back staying in the EU and 56 per cent favor voting to leave.
This is due to the turnout factor. Only 66 per cent of people in London say
they will definitely vote, the lowest of any region.
However, warnings about the economic impact of Brexit appear to have hit home. According to ORB, eight out of 10 people – and of Conservative voters – think leaving the EU would pose some risk, and only 19 per cent think it would pose no risk at all. But a majority of both groups are still prepared to take the risk.
Comments
The US needs to quit the
UN for the same reasons the Brits want to quit the EU to regain voter control
over government policies.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA
Tea Party Leader
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