Monday, March 19, 2018

US Agricultural Exports


In 2016, the US exported about $130 billion worth of agricultural products to other countries.

We exported $25.4 billion in soybeans, $9.2 billion in corn, $7.6 billion in nuts, $6.1 billion prepared foods, $6.1 billion fruit, $5.6 billion pork, $5.1 wheat, $4.6 billion diary, $3.8 billion poultry. 

We sold $20 billion to Canada, 19.2 billion to China, 17.7 billion to Mexico, $11.6 billion to the EU, $10.6 billion to Japan.

In 2015, the US exported about $140 billion worth of agricultural products to other countries. We sold $22.5 billion to China, $21.8 billion to Canada, $18.3 billion to Mexico, $12.1 to the EU, $11.8 to Japan, $6.4 billion to South Korea and the rest to other countries.

In 2017 and 2018 US Agricultural Exports remained at the same levels. The US tends to export more agricultural products than it imports. In January 2018, the US exported $11.4 billion, imported $11.1 billion.

Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade
FY 2018 U.S. Exports Forecast at $139.5 Billion; Imports at $118.5 Billion.


Projections for U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal 2018 lowered $500 million from the November forecast, and $1.0 billion below the previous year's exports
U.S. agricultural imports forecast at $600 million below fiscal 2017, but $1.5 billion above the previous fiscal 2018 projection

Fiscal Year 2018 agricultural exports are projected at $139.5 billion, down $500 million from the November forecast, largely due to a 6-percent decline in oilseed and product exports that is only partially offset by increases in livestock, cotton, and grain, oilseed exports are forecast down $2.0 billion to $31.1 billion as a result of slower soybean exports, mostly to China, and strong competition from Brazil.

Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are raised $800 million to $30.5 billion, led by higher forecasts for beef and pork

Cotton is forecast up $600 million to $5.4 billion on substantially higher unit values.

Grain and feed exports are forecast up $300 million to $29.7 billion, as gains for coarse grains, both corn and sorghum, more than offset a reduction for wheat.

Expected increases in imports of horticultural and grain and feed products are largely responsible for the upward adjustment in the forecast, but higher projected supplies of sugar and tropical products, and an expected increase in oilseed product imports also contributed to the change.

In fiscal year 2018, fresh vegetable imports are expected to be $200 million larger than previously expected, due to larger volumes. Essential oil imports are expected to reach $3.6 billion in fiscal year 2018, a $100 million increase from the previous forecast, with high levels of shipments expected after a strong first quarter.

Imports of grain and feed products are forecast to grow by $300 million from the previous forecast to $11.6 billion, due to projected increases in U.S. demand for processed grain products, as well as for wheat and oats.

Coffee products are expected to be worth $6.5 billion, due to higher unit values than previously expected. Natural rubber imports are expected to be $200 million higher than the November report, due to rising projected unit values and volumes.

Total oilseed and product imports for fiscal 2018 are expected to increase to $9.0 billion, a $200 million increase from November, due in part to stronger than expected volumes of vegetable oil shipments.


Comments

In agricultural States like Georgia, you will find a lot of misplaced concern about their own agricultural export volumes. I don’t expect Trump’s tariffs will result in lower US agricultural exports, because these follow their own rules. The purpose of these exports is to sell food to countries who need it. 

Weather effects yields and States can usually off-set poor harvests in weather-problem areas with good harvests in weather-friendly parts of the US. This is a real supply and demand laboratory and is breathing a sigh of relief with the roll-back of Obama’s suicidal EPA regulations.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

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