Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Greek Default Ahead

Greece Reaches the End of the Line as Negotiations Failing by Mike Larson, June 15, 2015, Last stop folks … end of the line!

You’ve probably heard that announcement on a subway train before. Now, that’s what Greece’s creditors are saying.

Fed up with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, and the rest of the Greek negotiating team, they’ve put what looks like a final deal on the table.

No more pension or tax goodies.

No more compromises on budget surplus targets.

No more well-choreographed, delicate negotiating dances.

The message coming out of Europe sounds much more like “Take it or leave it!”

Here’s the key right now: Weekend talks between Greek officials and their European counterparts in Brussels reportedly collapsed in just 45 minutes. That leaves a June 18 meeting of finance ministers in Luxembourg as the likely last-ditch opportunity for Greece to secure a deal. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is battling it out with international creditors.

Failing that, Greece will likely soon default on payments due the International Monetary Fund, the European Union, or both. It will be forced to enact capital controls to keep more money from fleeing the country’s banking system. And it will probably have to exit the euro currency union, with untold consequences at home, throughout Europe, and around the world in financial markets!

I know what you’re thinking. We’ve seen this movie before. We always get down to the last minute. Then the politicians manage to come up with a buzzer-beater save. Those saves never solve the underlying problem of too much debt, too little growth, and too many unreasonable promises made by a series of Greek governments. But they buy some time … until the next deadline.

The difference now is in the language coming out of Europe. Officials are genuinely fed up, and sick and tired of the wheeling and dealing. Greece has to pay 1.6 billion euros to the IMF at the end of June, and 6.7 billion euros to the European Central Bank in July and August. The current bailout program ends on June 30, and European officials won’t release a 7.2-billion euro tranche of aid unless Greece stops playing games.

Indeed, German officials wrote today in an op-ed that “Not only is time running out but so too is patience across Europe. Everywhere in Europe, the sentiment is growing that enough is enough.”

The Belgian Finance Minister warned: “There is no free lunch being part of the euro zone. It requires discipline.”

An unnamed official quoted by Reuters said “This is very disappointing and sad. It was a last attempt to bridge our differences but the gap is too large. One can discuss a gap, but this is an ocean.”

Despite all that “take it or leave it” style talk, the Greeks still haven’t budged. After the latest talks failed, Tspiras retorted: “We will wait patiently until the institutions adhere to realism … We are shouldering the dignity of our people.”

“I know what you’re thinking. We’ve seen this movie before.”

The latest Greek chaos comes at a potentially dangerous time for the markets. We’ve already seen key sectors like the transports and utilities break down. We’ve also already seen multiple “Bloody Wednesday”-style selloffs in government bonds.

If we get a real Grexit-driven panic, there’s a lot of air under the broader averages. So stay alert and prepared to take further action at any time – to protect yourself and profit from the consequences of the “Take it or leave it” talks in Europe.

So what are your thoughts? Is this finally the end game, and how does it conclude? Does Greece have a chance to save itself, or are its European creditors ready to give up on the country and its leaders? Let me know over at the website ASAP!

Comments

Greece is occupies 51 square miles of land and has a population of about 11.  Its GDP is $266 billion. Unemployment is about 30%. Tourism, shipping, agriculture, fishing and mining are its main industries. Government spends 60% of GDP and is saddled with high pension costs. Greeks can retire at age 58 at 80% of salary or at age 63. Government jobs dominate at 3 million. There are 2.5 million retirees. Half the population lives off the government.




The formula for economic decay appears to be big government, corruption, overreaching bureaucracy, early retirement, welfare and belief in global warming.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

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