As of September 2025, Hezbollah does not have outright control of Lebanon, but its influence has diminished significantly following the 2024 war with Israel and subsequent internal and external pressures. However, the group retains considerable political power and military capability, despite the Lebanese government and army moving forward with a U.S.-backed plan to disarm it.
Hezbollah's
diminished influence
· Assassination of
leadership: A major turning point occurred in 2024 when several key
leaders were killed by Israeli strikes, including longtime Secretary-General
Hassan Nasrallah.
· Military
setbacks: The 2024 conflict with Israel resulted in heavy losses for
Hezbollah, forcing it to withdraw much of its heavy weaponry and infrastructure
from southern Lebanon in accordance with a November 2024 ceasefire.
· Financial strain: International sanctions and internal financial issues have hampered the group's ability to fund its operations and social services. A U.S. military aid package sent in September 2025 aims to further erode Hezbollah's financial networks.
Lebanese
government's push for disarmament
· New leadership: After
years of political gridlock, a new government was formed in February 2025 under
President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. This new leadership is
seen as more pro-West and has been actively pursuing disarmament.
· Homeland Shield
Plan: In September 2025, the Lebanese cabinet approved the "Homeland
Shield Plan," a military roadmap designed to bring all weapons under state
control by the end of the year.
· Reduced political power: For the first time in over a decade, the Lebanese government does not appear beholden to Hezbollah's veto power, though Hezbollah-affiliated ministers still hold some cabinet seats.
Factors
complicating full government control
· Hezbollah's opposition: The
group's current leader, Naim Qassem, has condemned the disarmament plan and
threatened renewed attacks if pushed. Hezbollah retains its political party
status and a significant support base within the Shiite community.
· Fragile
ceasefire: Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon and have reportedly
continued to conduct strikes on Hezbollah targets, prompting concerns that
violations could derail the disarmament process.
· Civil war
threat: Despite its weakened state, some fear that pushing Hezbollah too
hard could trigger internal conflict. Hezbollah-aligned ministers walked out of
the cabinet meeting in protest of the disarmament plan, and threats of a civil
war have been made.
· External pressure: While external pressure from the U.S. and Gulf states has emboldened the Lebanese government, some analysts warn that external involvement could backfire or destabilize the country.
As of September 2025, Hezbollah no longer exerts the same level of political and military dominance over Lebanon as in previous years, due to significant weakening during the 2024 war with Israel. However, the group still maintains a significant military presence and political influence, and resistance to disarmament remains.
Shift in military power
· Reduced military
infrastructure: Following a U.S.-brokered ceasefire in November 2024,
Hezbollah has withdrawn the majority of its military installations and heavy
weapons from southern Lebanon.
· LAF
deployment: The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have deployed to areas south
of the Litani River, with the army now in control of most of that region.
· Hezbollah leadership
losses: A major factor in the shift was the severe weakening of Hezbollah
during the 2024 conflict, which included the death of long-time leader Hassan
Nasrallah and other key figures.
· Disrupted supply
lines: The fall of the Assad regime in Syria in late 2024 has cut off one
of Iran's main land routes for supplying weapons to Hezbollah.
· Continued presence: Despite the pullout from the south, Hezbollah retains a significant military presence, particularly with light arms in southern villages and across other parts of the country. The group has warned of renewed fighting with Israel if the government's disarmament efforts proceed too quickly.
Political influence and government control
· New, less-allied
government: A two-year political stalemate ended in early 2025 with the
election of President Joseph Aoun and the appointment of Prime Minister Nawaf
Salam. Both are backed by Hezbollah's domestic rivals and international powers
like the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.
· Lost veto
power: For the first time in over a decade, Hezbollah and its allies do
not hold a "blocking third" of cabinet posts, reducing their ability
to veto government decisions.
· Disarmament
plan: In September 2025, the Lebanese cabinet approved the LAF's
"Homeland Shield Plan" to disarm all militias, including Hezbollah,
with an initial focus on areas south of the Litani River by the end of the
year.
· Hezbollah's
rejection: Hezbollah has officially rejected the disarmament plan and
walked out of the cabinet meeting in protest. However, the group is reportedly
open to a more gradual, consensus-based discussion on disarmament.
· Ongoing tensions: The Lebanese government is attempting to navigate the ambitious disarmament push amid warnings of civil unrest or renewed conflict from Hezbollah, which still commands strong loyalty among the country's Shia community.
Disarmament progress and obstacles
· Palestinian factions
disarmed: As part of the broader disarmament plan, the Lebanese army has
successfully collected weapons from several Palestinian factions in refugee
camps across the country.
· Army
limitations: Full disarmament of Hezbollah remains a major challenge due
to the group's vast arsenal and the army's limited capabilities and resources.
Many observers believe the year-end deadline is unrealistic.
· Israeli violations: Lebanon has cited Israel's repeated ceasefire violations, including ongoing airstrikes and the occupation of several border areas, as an obstacle to full compliance with the November 2024 agreement. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has stated the group will not disarm while Israel continues its attacks.
https://www.google.com/search?q=hezbollah+control+of+lebanon+today+2025
Support for Hezbollah within the Shia community has faced significant challenges in 2024 and 2025 due to military losses, economic hardship, and mounting pressure for the group to disarm. While the group retains strong support among some Shia populations, particularly through its social services, its financial stability and credibility have been tested by the aftermath of the 2024 conflict with Israel, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, and persistent calls for disarmament.
Lebanese
Shia community
Despite
recent setbacks, Hezbollah continues to rely on support from the Shia
population, but its ability to deliver on promises has been strained.
· Continued sectarian
allegiance: Surveys conducted in 2024 show that Hezbollah still enjoys strong
support among Lebanon's Shia population.
· Challenges to
credibility: The 2024 conflict with Israel, which saw the loss of key leaders
and a large portion of Hezbollah's arsenal, has created a sense of war fatigue
and exposed vulnerabilities. The group's inability to fully protect its base or
ensure timely reconstruction and compensation for damage has tested its
credibility.
· Dependency on social
services: Hezbollah's parallel welfare system remains a key factor in
maintaining loyalty, especially amidst Lebanon's economic collapse. This
reliance on the group for social mobility and financial stability is a
significant source of its base support.
· Political pressure: The disarmament agenda, promoted by the new Lebanese government, has created internal divisions. In September 2025, five Shia ministers walked out of a cabinet debate on the issue, signaling ongoing political tension within the Shia community.
Iranian
support
Iran's
support for Hezbollah remains critical, though Tehran's ability to provide aid
has been limited by its own financial constraints and regional
developments.
· Continued ideological
alignment: Iran's Supreme National Security Council reaffirmed its support for
Hezbollah in August 2025, emphasizing the group's importance within the
Iranian-led regional "Axis of Resistance".
· Renewed military
supplies: Western intelligence suggests that Iran resumed missile deliveries to
Hezbollah in mid-2025 to help replenish its arsenal after the 2024 conflict.
· Limited material
support: Despite Tehran's vocal backing, analysts note that Iran's practical
ability to provide meaningful support has diminished. This is due to the fall
of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024, which cut off a vital land route
for transferring funds and weapons.
· Reduced financial assistance: Financial struggles within Iran, as well as the loss of access to Syria, have impacted the flow of cash. This has forced Hezbollah to restructure its payment systems and contributed to its own financial struggles.
External
Shia support
Beyond
Iran and Lebanon, broader international support from Shia populations appears
to be limited.
· Broader Muslim opinion:
A 2010 Pew
Research Center poll
showed that, outside of Lebanon, support for Hezbollah among Muslim publics,
including Shia communities, was low.
· Iraqi support: Some Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, which are part of the Axis of Resistance, continue to show solidarity with Hezbollah. However, these groups are primarily focused on Iraqi and Iranian interests.
While
still receiving strong backing from Iran, Shia support for Hezbollah in 2025
has become more complex and divided, especially within Lebanon. Following the
2024 conflict with Israel and the assassinations of its leaders, the group is
weakened and faces growing internal and external pressure to disarm.
Support from Iran
As
of mid-2025, Iran remains Hezbollah's most significant and consistent
backer.
· Political and military
aid: Iran has reaffirmed its steadfast political and military support for
the group and supplies it with arms and funding.
· Opposition to
disarmament: Iran and its allies are staunchly opposed to the U.S.-backed
plan to disarm Hezbollah, which the Lebanese government is considering.
· Strategic importance: Tehran views a strong, armed Hezbollah as a key element of its "Axis of Resistance" against Israel, and a weakened Hezbollah is a major strategic setback for Iran.
Support
within Lebanon
Within
Lebanon, Shia support for Hezbollah is still strong in traditional strongholds
but is showing signs of strain.
· Core support
remains: The majority of Lebanese Shias, particularly in the south and
Bekaa Valley, continue to support Hezbollah. An Arab Barometer poll from 2024
showed that 85% of Lebanese Shias still trusted the group. This core backing
was visible in the large turnout for the funerals of Hassan Nasrallah and his
successor in February 2025.
· Signs of
discontent: Disappointment has emerged in some parts of the Shia
community, particularly regarding the group's inability to effectively lead
reconstruction efforts after the 2024 conflict. War fatigue, economic hardship,
and the displacement of civilians have all contributed to some "muted
dissent".
· Political alliance with
Amal: Hezbollah's political alliance with the Amal Movement, another major
Shia party, remains largely intact, though tensions exist over the disarmament
issue. Five Shia ministers, including representatives from Hezbollah and Amal,
walked out of a September 2025 cabinet session that discussed the disarmament
plan.
· Lack of alternatives: For many Shias, Hezbollah remains the only credible political and military force that can stand up to Israeli aggression and ensure their community's interests are protected. This makes it difficult for them to consider alternatives, even amid frustrations.
Regional
and international Shia support
Support
from other Shia groups and actors in the region, while less direct, remains
relevant to Hezbollah's operational capacity.
· "Axis of
Resistance": Iranian-backed Shia militias in Iraq, such as the
Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), have expressed solidarity with Hezbollah and
Iran's resistance strategy.
· Replenishing
arms: Iran continues to prioritize supplying arms to regional allies,
including Hezbollah, despite its own economic and military challenges.
· Smuggling and funds: Despite financial difficulties, Iran has reportedly attempted to smuggle funds to Hezbollah in recent weeks, and the group has restructured its financial system to manage these challenges.
https://www.google.com/search?q=shia+support+of+hezbollah+2025
Comments
Hezbollah will lose control of
Lebanon if they are eradicated by the Lebanese Government. It may take US and
Israeli military action.
Worldometer estimating it at 5,857,682 as of early September 2025. Lebanon's population is approximately 70% Muslim (split between Sunni and Shia) and 30% Christian.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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