According to Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center Director Rajeev Dhawan, speaking at his August 28, 2025, conference, job growth in Georgia remains below pre-pandemic levels due to specific sector weaknesses. Despite this slowdown, the state's economy benefits from strengths in other areas, such as data center construction.
Key takeaways from the
forecast
- Anemic job growth: In the first half
of 2025, Georgia added only 11,700 jobs. This marked a sharp and
persistent slowdown compared to 2024 and was significantly less than the
state's growth rate from 2017 to 2019.
- Sector-specific slowdowns:
- Service sector: Dhawan noted
significant stress in white-collar, middle-management service-sector
jobs, which are being challenged by advances in artificial intelligence
(AI).
- Film and TV: The forecast cited the
changing focus of film and television production as a contributing
factor, noting that Marvel Studios had relocated to London.
- Airlines: Delta Air Lines, Georgia's
largest private employer, saw an anemic 1.0% revenue growth in the first
half of 2025, with coach ticket sales dropping by 3.6%.
- Economic bright spots:
- Data centers: A boom in data center
construction was noted as a positive factor.
- Population growth: Continued
in-migration of retirees is helping the state's economy.
- Aerospace: The aerospace industry is
expected to get a boost from increased defense spending by European NATO
countries.
- Forecasted recovery: While job growth remained sluggish through August 2025, Dhawan noted that the pace of job creation was expected to improve in 2026.
Dr. Rajeev Dhawan of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University delivered a forecast at a webinar on August 28, 2025. Key insights for Georgia's economy were also published by the University of Georgia's Selig Center for Economic Growth in December 2024 and expanded upon in early 2025.
Dr. Dhawan's forecast (GSU)
- Key sectors show mixed
performance: Data center construction and in-migration of retirees
are boosting the state's economy, while AI advances and global economic
uncertainty are stressing service-sector jobs.
- Job growth moderates: The state added
only 11,700 jobs in the first half of 2025, a slower pace than previous
years. The film and television industry, in particular, has seen a
slowdown.
- Aerospace gains: The industry is
expected to receive a boost from increased defense spending pledges by
European NATO nations.
- Airline weakness: Delta Air Lines experienced an anemic 1.0% revenue growth in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by a 3.6% drop in coach ticket sales.
Dr. Humphreys' and Ayers'
forecast (UGA)
- Slower but resilient
growth: Georgia's economy is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, a
slowdown from 3.1% in 2024, but will still outpace the national forecast
of 1.6% GDP growth.
- Low recession risk: The probability
of a recession in Georgia is estimated at 25%, an improvement from earlier
in 2024.
- Unemployment to edge up: The state's
unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly from 3.7% in 2024 to 4.0%
in 2025, but will remain below the national average. This is mainly due to
slower hiring rather than mass layoffs.
- Inflation stable: After falling to 3%
in 2024, inflation is expected to hold steady at that rate through 2025.
- Drivers of growth:
- Housing: Lower mortgage rates and a
lingering housing shortage will drive an expected 9% increase in
single-family home construction, while home prices hold steady.
- Healthcare: An aging population and
continued population growth will bolster health care hiring.
- Logistics: The build-out of existing
projects, including new inland ports, will boost the transportation and
logistics sectors.
- Manufacturing: Georgia's
manufacturing industry will benefit from higher demand for vehicles and
the continued development of the electric vehicle ecosystem.
- Areas of weakness: Retail and information technology jobs are likely to see losses due to online competition and technological advances. The film and TV industry will face overcapacity challenges in 2025, though a partial rebound is expected.
https://www.google.com/search?q=ravcgv+dharwan+georgia+economic+forecast+8-28-25
In May 2025, the last reported
month for specific job opening data, Georgia had approximately
333,000 job openings. For context, this was a 6.3% job openings rate
for the state, compared to a 4.6% national rate at that time.
https://www.google.com/search?q=how+many+job+openings+are+in+the+us+state+of+georgia+today+2025
Economic Highlights
In 2026, Job Growth in Georgia
is forecast to increase by 68,000 jobs.
In 2027. Job Growth in Georgia is forecast to increase by 83,000 jobs.
In 2.026, Job Growth in
Atlanta Metro is forecast to increase by 44,300 jobs.
In 2027, Job Growth in Atlanta Metro is forecast to increase by 60,500 jobs.
Income Growth is expected to increase by 5.4% in 2026 and 6.0% in 2027.
Single Family Home Permits are expected to increase by 15% in 2027.
Source: Dunwoody Crier 9-11-25
The Department of Homeland
Security (DHS) announced in August 2025 that the U.S. had seen a reduction of
approximately 1.6 million unauthorized immigrants in the first 200 days of the
second Trump administration. However, this figure does not exclusively
represent voluntary departures.
Comments
Georgia’s Illegal population can be estimated at 350 000. As they “self-deport” or move through the Asylum Process, they will need to be replaced by US citizens. This should increase some job availability in the areas they vacate.
We should be able to identify the number of US citizens in the US population after we have AI Data Centers established and accurate data can be confirmed from shared databases.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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