US Crime Rates 9-6-25

In the U.S., crime rates peaked in the early 1990s and have trended downward since, despite a notable, temporary spike in homicides during the COVID-19 pandemic. While artificial intelligence (AI) is having a transformative impact on crime, its effects are seen more in new types of cybercrime and in how law enforcement conducts analysis than in traditional crime rates over time.  

Historical trends in U.S. crime rates

Peak and decline (1990s–2019):

·       1960s–1990s: Crime rates rose steadily after World War II, peaking in the early 1990s. The violent crime rate nearly quadrupled, and property crime more than doubled between 1960 and 1991.

·       Post-1991: Violent and property crime rates began a long-term, significant decline. The violent crime rate fell 49% between 1993 and 2022, while the property crime rate dropped by 59% in the same period.

·       Reasons for the decline: Criminologists have attributed this decades-long drop to multiple factors, including changes in policing strategies, an aging population, a decline in the crack cocaine epidemic, and advances in technology. 

Recent fluctuations (2020–2025):

·       COVID-19 surge: The long-term trend was disrupted by a massive 30% surge in the U.S. murder rate between 2019 and 2020, the largest single-year increase on record.

·       Post-pandemic decline: The murder rate dropped by 9% in 2022 and continued to fall dramatically. Early reports from the FBI and other researchers show homicides and violent crime continuing to fall through 2024 and the first half of 2025.

·       Property crime: Trends have been mixed. While motor vehicle theft saw a sharp rise between 2020 and 2023, it has since reversed course. Shoplifting also saw an increase in 2024, while other forms of property crime declined. 

The role of AI and technology

AI's impact on crime is less about affecting historical trends of traditional offenses and more about creating new types of crime and new methods of detection. 

AI-enabled crime

·       Enhanced scams: AI tools allow criminals to create highly convincing phishing and "vishing" (voice phishing) attacks at a massive scale. Deepfake technology is used to generate realistic fake video and audio to deceive victims, leading to billions in financial losses.

·       Child sexual abuse material (CSAM): Criminals are using generative AI to create fake, non-consensual images of child sexual abuse, complicating detection efforts.

·       Scaling criminal activity: AI helps criminals automate and scale fraudulent activities, such as financial and identity theft. 

AI in law enforcement

·       Crime analysis: AI and data analysis are used to identify crime patterns and "hotspots," helping agencies strategically allocate resources.

·       Predictive policing: Law enforcement can use AI to predict areas where crime is likely to occur.

·       Investigative support: Some cities, like Boston and Denver, have used technology and data analysis to increase clearance rates for specific crimes, such as homicide and nonfatal shootings. 

Challenges and concerns

·       AI vs. AI: Law enforcement agencies, including the FBI, are playing catch-up, developing AI-based countermeasures to combat AI-enabled crime.

·       Civil liberties: The use of AI in criminal justice raises concerns about transparency, due process, and potential biases within the system.

·       Unequal access: There is concern that an imbalance in AI tool availability between law enforcement and defense, or between well-funded and modest-budget agencies, could lead to unequal access to justice. 

Overall trends

·       General decline: Both violent and property crime rates in the US have fallen substantially since the early 1990s, with drops of 49% and 59% respectively between 1993 and 2022, according to FBI data. The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reports even steeper declines of 71% for both categories during the same period.

·       Recent Fluctuations: This decline hasn't been entirely steady. There were notable increases in certain types of crime in some years, including a 30% jump in the murder rate between 2019 and 2020, which marked the largest single-year increase since 1960. However, preliminary data for 2023 and the first half of 2025 suggest a substantial decrease in the murder rate following that peak. The violent and property crime rates declined to two-decade lows in 2024, according to the FBI.

·       Disparities persist: While crime rates have dropped overall, disparities persist. For example, homicide rates remain notably higher in some communities, particularly among poorer communities of color. 

Specific crime types

·       Violent Crime:

o   Homicide: Peaked in 1980 and again in 1991, reaching a low in 2014, then experienced an upward trend starting in 2015, peaking in 2021 before decreasing in 2022 and further into 2023 and the first half of 2025. Homicide and other violent crimes fell below pre-pandemic levels in a sample of U.S. cities, according to mid-year 2025 data.

o   Robbery and Rape: Generally declined between 1993 and 2022.

o   Aggravated Assault: Declines were observed between 1993 and 2022.

·       Property Crime:

o   Overall Property Crime: Saw significant reductions, particularly in burglary, larceny/theft, and motor vehicle theft between 1993 and 2022.

o   Motor Vehicle Theft: Had been on the rise from 2020 through 2023, but the trend reversed in 2024 and continued downwards into 2025.

o   Larceny/Theft: Showed a 54% reduction between 1993 and 2022.

o   Shoplifting: Rose by 8.9 percent in 2024 compared to 2023. 

Reporting and clearance rates

·       Low Reporting: Most violent and property crimes are not reported to the police.

·       Low Clearance Rates: Most reported crimes are not solved. Nationwide clearance rates for both violent and property crime are at their lowest levels since at least 1993. However, the clearance rate for murder did increase in 2024 but hasn't surpassed pre-COVID rates. 

AI's impact on crime rates

·       AI for crime prevention: AI offers advanced analytical capabilities, predictive modeling, and real-time data processing for crime prevention efforts. For instance, AI-driven crime mapping tools can identify high-risk areas, allowing police to allocate resources more effectively and potentially prevent crimes before they occur.

·       AI-enabled crime: Criminals are also leveraging AI for more sophisticated cyberattacks, fraud, and other illicit activities. AI can be used for things like creating deepfakes for scams, automating phishing attempts, and developing malicious software.

·       Challenges and opportunities: Integrating AI into law enforcement and security sectors presents challenges, including ethical concerns and the need for a skilled workforce. However, addressing these challenges through ethical guidelines, workforce development, and collaboration can harness the potential of AI to enhance public safety. 

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Comments

The rise in US Crime from 1960 to 1990 correlates with the rise in Drug Use, Protests and Riots. It includes the Airline Hijacking by Islamic Terror Groups that began in the 1970s. This continued and ended with the 9-11-2001 attack on the Twin Towers.

Drug Cartels continue to fuel US Crime. In 2020, Democrat States elected Soros Funded Defense Attorneys in 2020 who introduced “Cashless Bail” and “immediate release” of dangerous criminals.

From 2021 to 2024 the Biden Administration recruited 21 million Unvetted Illegals into the US. In 2025, the Trump Administration began deporting Illegal Criminals and Non-Criminal Illegals with Deportation Orders.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader