by Vanand Melikstian, 12/24/18, oilprice.com.
The Syrian
Civil War has gone through several phases over the course of seven years and it
now appears to be entering another one. Government forces have regained control
over much of Syria with Russian air support and Iranian ground forces.
Only Idlib and the territories east of the Euphrates River remain
out of the hands of President Assad’s regime. With the U.S. planning an
imminent withdrawal from Syria, things could soon shift again.
Control over
Eastern Syria is important for the government in Damascus for political and
economic reasons. President Assad has on numerous occasions stated his desire
to establish control over the entire Syrian territory in order to strengthen
the image of a strong and stable regime.
Before the
war, Syria produced 387,000 barrels per day of which 140,000 bpd were exported. Most of this oil came from
Eastern Syria, which is now under the control of the U.S.-backed SDF.
Currently, the Syrian oil industry is a shadow of its former self due to the
civil war.
A weakened IS led to government forces progressing from the west, while
the SDF expelled the Islamic fundamentalists from the north. The Euphrates River
has become the natural border between the SDF and the Syrian military. After a
serious incursion on February 7th, 2018, during
which approximately 300 Syrian soldiers and Russian mercenaries died attacking
U.S. and SDF forces on the eastern shores, it has become relatively calm in the
region.
The success
of the SDF is a direct consequence of cooperation with Washington. The U.S. is
the guarantor of security through the presence of 2,000 Special Forces and
continuous air support. Turkey, however, has been less pleased with this
arrangement. The Kurdish YPG is the backbone of the SDF and is linked to the
PKK which is the cause of major distress in Ankara.
The
seemingly intractable position of the U.S. concerning support for the YPG is
one of the reasons that relations between Washington and Ankara are at a
historic low. Turkey fears that autonomy for the Syrian Kurds will embolden its
own restive provinces. For the U.S., however, supporting the SDF is the only
way to maintain a foothold in Syria and thwart Iranian and Russian intentions.
In an apparent
U-turn, President Trump is now considering pulling out all
American troops within 60 to 100 days. In a tweet on Wednesday, he said:
"We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the
Trump Presidency".
The
withdrawal would be a major boon for Turkey, Iran, Russia, and what’s left of
IS. A Turkish military build-up on the border with
Syria in recent days is the first step of an offensive which Turkish President
Erdogan has long been planning for. Ankara’s objective is to prevent the YPG
from having a foothold on its border. With the U.S. gone, Turkish forces could
engage with the YPG.
The Syrian
government and its allies would also be beneficiaries of a U.S. withdrawal. If
the American ‘shield’ goes, the SDF and YPG would face pressure from the north
by Turkey and the West by government forces. For the YPG the threat from the
north is existential meaning that the front on the Euphrates river could be
abandoned or weakened.
The eastern shores are of paramount importance to Damascus and its
economic future. The region contains most of the oil fields, which could
provide income for reconstruction purposes. The withdrawal of the U.S. combined
with pressure from Turkey, gives Damascus, Moscow, and Tehran a unique
opportunity to regain control with minimum effort.
The YPG is currently undoubtedly weighing its options with regards
to minimizing its losses. Assuming the U.S. is withdrawing, not much remains to
contain Turkish forces to their side of the border. The Kurds are no match for
the second biggest army of NATO regardless of the effectiveness of the YPG.
However, a conflict in Northern Syria against a battle-hardened enemy could
become expensive for Ankara. Moscow is in a position to take advantage of the
situation by striking a deal with the Kurds.
There are two options: Syrian government forces will retake the
eastern shores of the Euphrates with the promise not to engage further to the
north where the YPG would fight a one-front battle against Turkey. Or Russia
would act as a guarantor for the retreat of the YPG from the border areas with
Turkey in exchange for the returning of the SDF territories to Damascus’s
control. It seems the Kurds in Syria don't have much of a choice with pressure
mounting from all sides. - By Vanand Meliksetian for Oilprice.com
Comments
As of
today, some US forces will remain to keep Iran and ISIS from taking over Syrian
oil fields. Trump is leaving the border
issues to work out between Turkey and Syrian Kurds to get the Kurds to stop
attacking Turkey. If the Syrian Kurds retain control of their current
territory, the beneficiaries would be the Kurds and Turkey. If the Assad Syrian government wants control
of Kurdish territory, they will have to work it out with the Kurds.
Norb
Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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