The US will need to
produce an additional 7 million bpd to close the gap between Consumption and
Production.
EIA reports average Oil price per barrel at $109.4 in 2022 and $82.41 in 2023. EIA estimates average Oil price per barrel at $82.49 in 2024 and $79.49 in 2025. This looks right if you assume Biden will be reelected. Trump’s numbers would be lower in 2025 and much lower in the following years. Trump will take gasoline prices back under $3.00 per gallon.
U.S. total petroleum consumption is forecast to rise by 200,000 bpd to 20.5 million bpd in 2023, and is forecast to rise by another 200,000 bpd to 20.7 million bpd in 2024, the data showed. Aug 8, 2023
Year M bpd - Reg Gas - Oil $ Ave
2025 13.44
3.24 79.49 est
2024 13.21
3.50 82.49 est
2023 11.91
3.97 82.41
2022 12.92 3.52 109.4
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
US Oil Production in 2021 showed US Oil Consumption at 19.69 barrels per day
The US needed to increase oil production back to 13 million barrels per day in 2021 to begin reducing gasoline prices, but oil consumption rose estimates to again from 19.69 bpd to 20.7 bpd.
US Oil & N Gas Production by Month on 2020 and 2021 shows how the reduction in US oil production is driving higher gasoline prices that track the average price of oil. This is pure supply and demand.
Dec
2021 11.2 3.39 88.16
Nov
2021 11.7 3.39 80.54
Oct 2021
11.5 3.39 83.52
Sep
2021 10.809 3.26
74.49
Aug
2021 11.189 3.06
70.75
Jul 2021
11.307 3.04
75.17
Jun
2021 11.276 2.96
73.16
May
2021 11.334
2.89 68.53
Apr
2021 11.230 2.77
64.81
Mar
2021 11.160
2.73 65.41
Feb
2021 9.883 2.41
62.28
Jan
2021 11.056 2.24
54.77
Dec
2020 11.084 2.11
49.99
Nov
2020 11.121
2.02 42.69
Oct
2020 10.413 2.07
40.19
Sep
2020 10.868 2.10
40.91
Aug
2020 10.558 2.09
44.74
Jul
2020 10.956 2.10
43.24
Jun
2020 10.420 2.00
40.27
May
2020 9.711
1.77 29.38
Apr
2020 11.911 1.72
18.38
Mar
2020 12.816 2.13
32.01
Feb
2020 12.826 2.35
55.66
Jan
2020 12.785 2.46
63.65
Dec
2019 12.910 2.47
Nov
2019 12.996 2.48
Oct
2019 12.771 2.50
Sep
2019 12.572 2.49
Aug
2019 12.475 2.52
Jul 2019
11.896 2.64
Jun
2019 12.179 2.60
May
2019 12.141 2.73
Apr
2019 12.125 2.69
Mar
2019 11.899 2.44
Feb
2019 11.653 2.22
Jan
2019 11.848 2.15
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/262861/uk-brent-crude-oil-monthly-price-development/
The
US consumed 19,690,000 barrels of oil per day in 2021
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/oil-consumption-by-country
Norb
Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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