Ebola
Unstoppable without Total Quarantine Scientists
warned curbing air travel would only delay spread by Jerome Corsi
NEW YORK – In an article published in
a scientific journal one month ago, an international team of scientists
correctly predicted Ebola would reach the United States by the end of
September, arguing a reduction in airline travel of as much as 80 percent would
only delay the international spread of the disease by three to four weeks at
most.
The study, published in the scientific journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks, used data supplied by the World Health Organization on the current Ebola outbreak in West Africa.
The study, published in the scientific journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks, used data supplied by the World Health Organization on the current Ebola outbreak in West Africa.
The study noted the near impossibility of completely ending
air travel from Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, the three West African
countries most affected by the disease. It pointed out that airlines that have
discontinued flights continue to assist West African travelers by booking them
on other airlines.
“We have explored the scenario assuming an 80 percent
airline traffic flow reduction to and from the West African region that
provided evidence of a general time-delay of the distribution characterizing
the probability of case importation of about three to four weeks,” the
scientists said.
“Although this delay may be useful, it would not help much
unless interventions on the ground could be put in place in the interval that
were effective in stopping the growth of the [Ebola] outbreak.”
The researchers also agreed with the World Health
Organization and the Centers for Disease Control that restrictions in air
travel “may hamper the deployment of personnel and support in the region,
ultimately creating a counter-productive effect in the containment effort.”
The scientists said that containing Ebola in Nigeria was
critical to the effort to control the disease, because Nigeria, the most
populous nation in Africa with more than 166 million people, generates the most
international travel.
Ranked in order, the top countries outside Africa where the
scientists predicted Ebola would spread are the United Kingdom, Belgium,
France, the United States and Germany.
The scientists noted “the ability to detect Ebola cases
during international flights can affect the risk of importation.” They added
that airports that are final destinations are more at risk of importing Ebola,
because people infected with the disease don’t usually show symptoms until
three weeks later.
The study concluded with an ominous warning: “The current
analysis shows that if the West African outbreak is not contained, the
probability of international spread is going to increase consistently,
especially if other countries are affected and not able to contain the epidemic.”
WND
reported last week an immigration expert contends the
Obama administration’s unwillingness to ban air travel from West Africa leaves
the U.S. vulnerable to the disease.
WND
has also reported Air France pilots and aircrews have
pushed for the right to refuse to fly to West Africa.
The
CDC issued a traveler’s alert
for all U.S. residents “to avoid travel to Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leon
because of unprecedented outbreaks of Ebola in those countries.” But the CDC
alert stopped short of an air travel embargo, merely recommending “that
travelers to these countries protect themselves by avoiding contact with the
blood and body fluids of people who are sick with Ebola.”
Source:http://www.wnd.com/2014/10/staggering-prediction-about-ebola-in-america/
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