Saturday, October 4, 2014

Financial Industry Shuffle Ahead

IMF: U.S. shadow banking reaches $15-$25 trillion by Joseph Lawler 10/3/14
U.S. "shadow banks" have reached $15 trillion to $25 trillion in size and are a growing part of overall lending, according to a new report from the International Monetary Fund.
In its latest Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF reports that the shadow banking system is roughly equivalent to the traditional banking system in terms of size and risk. Shadow banking is defined in different ways but generally refers to financial institutions outside of banks insured and regulated by the government, such as money market mutual funds, hedge funds and other non-bank financial firms.
The report includes a new accounting of total shadow banking liabilities undertaken by the Financial Stability Board, an international body that coordinates regulators.
The report says shadow banking can "complement" traditional banking and allow credit to flow places it otherwise wouldn't, but also cautions that the size of the market could present difficulties to regulators trying to prevent panics like the one that threatened to bring down the economy in 2008, which itself was partly caused by failures among shadow banks, such as the Reserve Primary Fund, a large money market mutual fund that nearly failed in the fall of 2008.
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Whether the rise of shadow banking implies an "overall increase or decline in systemic risk is difficult to assess at this juncture — but there are some indications of increased market and liquidity risk in advanced economies," the report concludes.
In the wake of the financial crisis, Congress passed the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial regulation reform law to prevent future bank failures that would lead to taxpayer bailouts. In recent months, however, regulators such as Treasury Secretary Jack Lew have acknowledged that they may need further regulatory tools to address risks taken on by shadow banking businesses. But shadow banking is largely driven by the desire to avoid regulation.
"Shadow banking tends to take off when strict banking regulations are in place, which leads to circumvention of regulations," Gaston Gelos, chief of the Global Financial Analysis Division at the IMF, said in a note introducing the report.
The report also warns that "some of the fastest-growing shadow banking activities substitute for, rather than complement, traditional banking."
And it calls for a "more encompassing approach to regulation and supervision that focuses both activities and on entities and places greater emphasis on systemic risk ... and improved transparency.”
Comments
Non-bank, financial firms would include the major retirement fund holders like Vanguard, Fidelity and TIAA along with insurance companies, private investment companies and hedge funds. Hedge funds allow investors to hedge their bets, like a bread manufacturer buying wheat futures and bet against almost anything like currencies or variable interest rates.  It also includes government usurped lending operations with monopoly power over home mortgages at Fannie and Freddie and student loans at Sallie. This is where the BIG MONEY comes and goes.
Banks were left with the left-overs like bank account administration and brokerage services.  Their low interest rate payments discourage leaving money in their accounts. The BIG banks like Bank of America and Wells Fargo have credit card administration, personal and business lending and money transfer ability.  Commercial Banks lend to local businesses with close customer contact and are the most vulnerable to local economic conditions.  Banks handle Bond sales for fees and government bond sales generate big income.  Banks also like owning land and businesses with an eye toward buying low and selling high, but that’s hard to do unless they can find some taxpayer money to subsidize their folly. 
The term “shadow bank” should be left to the real gamblers like the hedge funds and those insurance companies who specialize in insuring the down-side of investments like CIG.  These guys play “what if” with large investments.  Banks without these departments are left with low margin business.
Government “guarantees”, bailouts, required reserve minimums, regulations or lack thereof and tax breaks are the levers government uses to allow advantages to slide around within the financial services industry.  Milton Friedman trained conservative economists will have the best answers to this problem, but the “players: won’t like these answers.
As the Federal Reserve finally runs out of reasons to continue QE and the economy continues to decline, the fate of the highly leveraged firms will be quietly resolved. They are all hanging around Congress trying to buy the best deal they can get.  Us regular folks will get to pay the bill, as usual.
The federal government will be looking for the large investment firms to buy T-Bills that pay low interest rates to fund the federal debt and deficit spending and will gladly give them more advantages to get that to happen.  The BIG gamblers won’t be touched because they currently run the planet.
Norb Leahy Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader 

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