Sunday, June 16, 2019

Trade Deficits and Tariffs


Trump believes that countries should produce what their economies consume. The US Trade Deficit for 2018 was $891.3 billion. The US needs to reduce its Trade Deficit, restore its manufacturing base and increase its energy production.

The US economic recovery requires the return of middle class jobs to US citizens by eliminating illegal immigration and returning to immigration by need and merit to reduce the welfare migrant population in the US. It also required lowering the corporate taxes by $1.5 trillion over 10 years and eliminating unnecessary regulations. The use of Tariffs on imports reinforces our resolve to return to producing what we consume.

The US is on track to reduce its $891.3 billion annual Trade Deficit by decreasing its imports of manufactured goods and increasing exports of oil and natural gas. Trump warned that this was the plan in his 2016 campaign.

China, Mexico and EU countries are on notice and China Tariffs have been imposed on $260 billion of its exports to the US.

Mexico needs to stop the flow of welfare migrants.
In 2018, the US exported $266 billion to Mexico and Mexico exported $346 billion to the US. The US Trade Deficit with Mexico was $81.5 billion. Applying a 25% Tariff on Mexican exports of $346 billion to the US results in an annual $86.5 billion increase in US revenue.

EU needs to establish more manufacturing plants in the US.
In 2018, the US exported $318.4 billion to EU countries and EU countries exported $487 billion to the US. The US Trade Deficit with EU countries was $169 billion. Applying a 25% Tariff on EU country exports of $487 billion to the US results in an annual $121.75 billion increase in US revenue.

China needs to end intellectual property theft, end their military build-up in Asia and reduce manufacturing for the US market.
In 2018, the US exported $120 billion to China and China exported $540 billion to the US.  The US Trade Deficit with China was $420 billion. Applying a 25% Tariff on Chinese exports of $420 billion to the US results in an annual $105 billion increase in US revenue.

The US is already receiving $65 billion in Tariff Revenue from China. If 25% Tariffs were imposed on all imports from China, Mexico and the EU, the Tariff Revenue would be $313 billion.
 
US Tariff Revenue        US Deficit Reduction
China   $105 billion       $540 billion
Mexico $86.5 billion      $346 billion
EU        $121.75 billion  $487 billion
Total     $ 313.25           $1.373 trillion

US companies can absorb the $313.25 billion in Tariff costs from the $1.5 trillion tax cuts they got in 2018.

US Import Revenue
China    $120 billion
Mexico  $266 billion
EU         $318 billion
Total      $704 billion

China has no interest in buying US goods. They have tricked our technology companies into giving away their intellectual property.
Mexico has not developed enough of an economy to buy more US goods.
The EU already overtaxes US imports with 20% VAT taxes, so a 20% Tariff on EU cars and other goods just evens out the difference.

There is more than enough trade with China, Mexico and the EU to eliminate the $891.3 billion US Trade Deficit.

Japan will likely add more car plants to the US and buy their oil and natural gas from the US.
In 2018 the US exported $75.2 billion to Japan and Japan exported $142.4 billion to the US. The US Trade Deficit with Japan was $67.2 billion.

South Korea will add car production to the US and likely buy their oil and natural gas from the US
In 2018 the US exported $56.5 billion to South Korea and South Korea exported $74.3 billion to the US. The US Trade Deficit with South Korea was $17.8 billion

Canada will continue to export oil to the US until the US expands its oil production to meet our 20 million bbd consumption. Canada will continue to sell timber to the US until the US stops its annual forest fire festival.
In 2018 the US exported $300 billion to Canada and Canada exported $319 billion to the US.  The US Trade Deficit with Canada was $19 billion.

UK will expand trade with the US if they leave the EU.
In 2018 the US exported $66 billion to the UK and the UK exported $60 billion to the US.  The US Trade Surplus with the UK was $6 billion.

Germany exports cars to the US and will need to build more auto plants in the US.
In 2018 the US exported $57.8 billion to Germany and Germany exported $126 billion to the US. The US Trade Deficit with Germany was $68 billion.

Companies who currently export to the US will need to move their production of these goods to the US, so that US citizens can produce what they consume.

US security depends on peace through strength and requires the US to control its borders and restore industries that include steel, aluminum, minerals, technology development, electronics, software development and robotics.

Restoring US manufacturing should increase middle class jobs in rural cities and counties. It should take a few years for most companies to add their manufacturing jobs back to the US.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader


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