The United States is projected to import a record amount of beef in 2025, with estimates ranging from approximately 4.77 billion to over 5.36 billion pounds. This increase is driven by high domestic demand, lower beef production, and a continued reliance on imported beef, though recent tariffs on Brazilian beef and issues with Mexican cattle imports may cause shifts in trade patterns.
Key figures and trends for 2025 imports
Record-high
projections: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its 2025
import forecast to 5.364 billion pounds.
Year-over-year increase: This is projected to be a significant increase of over 15% compared to 2024, driven by strong demand for processing beef.
Monthly volumes: As of mid-2025, monthly import volumes were between 150,000 and 185,000 metric tons, which is approximately 330 million to 407 million pounds.
Shifting supply sources:
Brazil: Imports
from Brazil have been significantly impacted by recent tariffs, which are
causing some shipments to be suspended or diverted.
Argentina: A
potential increase in imports from Argentina has been noted, though it remains
a smaller contributor to total imports.
Mexico: Live cattle imports from Mexico are down due to a New World screwworm outbreak, which has prompted the closure of southern border livestock ports and could indirectly affect beef imports.
Factors
influencing the import forecast
Tight domestic supply: A shrinking U.S. cattle herd is leading to lower domestic beef production, increasing the need for imported beef to meet consumer demand.
Strong
consumer demand: Despite concerns over rising retail prices, consumer
demand for beef remains strong.
Market dynamics: Buyers are increasingly focused on lean beef for ground beef production, a market where imported beef from countries like Australia has been a key supplier.
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Comments
The recent removal of Tariffs on Beef are aimed at lowering the cost of beef in the US by increasing the Supply. Beef Producers in the US need time to rebuild their herds.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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