Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Pension Bailout Ahead


One More Bailout for Uncle Sam to Deal With? by Nilus Mattive,  Publisher, Easy Street Investing
 
Last week, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation — the entity responsible for insuring private pension plans of all stripes — dropped a bombshell …
 
The PBGC said it ran its biggest deficit ever during fiscal 2014.  What’s worse, the PBGC said it will be insolvent within 10 to 15 years!
 
To put this in perspective, the $62 billion shortfall reported for 2014 is almost double the $36 billion reported for 2013, and marks the 12th-straight year of deficits at the PBGC.
 
This is important news whether you currently receive a company pension, are entitled to one in the future, or are merely a U.S. taxpayer. Let me explain why …
 
Exposed: JPMorgan's gold strategy ...According to recent reports ... megabank JPMorgan made money trading during every single day of 2013. That's a perfect record for the whole year! The odds of that happening by skill alone are simply astronomical. And this isn't a fluke. In fact, over the last 5 years, JPMorgan has earned profits on about 90% of their trading days.
 
Internal Sponsorship - The PBGC is there for workers when their companies break retirement promises. Yet, ironically, the PBGC itself has been underfunded every year since 2002! To its credit, the organization was doing a decent job of getting back toward the black for a while. It cut its deficit slightly in 2005 and then made major strides in 2006 … 2007 … and 2008.  Obviously that was a temporary trend. And even the folks in charge now say the problems are irreversible without changes to the system.
 
So Here’s the Critical Question:   Where Does the PBGC Get Its Funding?  The PBGC is a federal corporation created under the "Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974."  That basically means it’s a quasi-governmental agency, much like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were.
(Yes, feel free to either shudder or snicker at this point.)
 
Essentially, the PBGC builds up a kitty by collecting premiums from working pension plans, and then uses that money to dole out benefits when companies go bankrupt or otherwise abandon their plans.
 
The PBGC currently guarantees basic pension benefits for about 44 million U.S. workers and retirees taking part in nearly 30,000 defined benefit pension plans.
 
Before I go any further, here’s a quick refresher on defined benefit pension plans.  They’re the dying breed of retirement plans that guarantee participants a set amount of money — paid monthly for life — generally based on the number of years of service performed at a company.
 
To operate these plans, companies have to sock away money for each covered worker. More importantly, they have to hope their investment assumptions work out well enough to produce enough in future returns to cover promised payouts.
 
When their investment portfolios don’t perform as planned — and that happened across the board during the financial crisis — companies must either dig deep into their corporate coffers or discontinue their plans.
 
You can see why very few old-line companies are offering defined benefit pension plans to their new crop of workers. And why they’re having a hard time keeping their existing plans solvent.
 
We should all remember that the PBGC basically faces the same challenges … plus a couple of additional hurdles.
Like private companies, it has a set amount of money in its kitty. And like private companies, it has to hope future investment returns allow that money to grow fast enough to cover future outlays.
 
But it CANNOT borrow from its regular operations to cover its deficit. After all, it doesn’t have a regular business to fall back on …It CANNOT discontinue its operations, obviously … And given the fact that fewer companies are choosing to continue offering defined benefit plans, it has fewer and fewer healthy plans to collect premiums from!
 
So Where Might the PBGC Get the Moneyto Correct Its Massive Deficit?  Here’s the thing … the PBGC does have a lot of money in its plan.  And it’s unlikely that anyone currently receiving benefits is going to suffer in the short-term.
 
Because benefits are paid out monthly, the PBGC has some leeway. Plus, a greater number of failed plans means more immediate funding for PBGC because most companies leave behind some money when they close shop.
 
However, none of that makes the long-term health of the PBGC any better. It really only has a few ways to solve its systemic underfunding.
 
Obviously, if its investment portfolio has a rip-roaring rally, everything will be just peachy.
 
But the idea of investment gains making up much ground is a long shot. Especially once you realize that the PBGC’s portfolio has traditionally been 30% stocks and 70% bonds!
 
That kind of an asset allocation certainly helped the PBGC avoid an even bigger catastrophe during the financial meltdown. However, it also means their portfolio probably missed most of the rally over the last few years.
 
The second option is for the PBGC to cut the amount of benefits it pays out to current recipients or to reduce the amount it offers to future workers covered in the event of plan failures. Remember that the PBGC already imposes a cap on how much it pays out workers — $57,477.24 a year to anyone 65 years or older.
 
Still, I don’t see it being able to reduce payments to anyone already covered. Only the idea of a smaller guarantee to future recipients is a possibility. They could simply maintain current payout levels and let long-term inflation work its magic. But really — the PBGC simply needs to get more money into its coffers.
 
A lot of experts have been calling for higher premiums being charged to member pension plans. And that may certainly happen. Yet there are two big drawbacks to this approach, as I see it:
 
First, as previously noted, there are already fewer and fewer companies offering defined benefit pension plans.
 
Second, charging the good plans higher premiums will only give companies one more reason to STOP providing defined benefit pension plans, which would exacerbate the existing problem.
 
That leaves just one place for the PBGC to get its money … you and me! One More Bailout for Uncle Sam to Deal With?
 
The story is just like all the others — whether it’s Fannie, Freddie or Social Security. These programs start with great intentions. They run fine when things are going well. But when things go bad, they become taxpayer money pits. They’re beasts that need constant feeding, growing hungrier and hungrier with time.
 
In its defense, the PBGC has never taken a dime of taxpayer money yet. Still, this latest financial report painted a very grim picture. And as the hole gets deeper, the solutions only get more extreme.
 
Source: Nilus Mattive, Publisher, Easy Street Investing
Uncommon Wisdom Daily is a free investment newsletter published by Uncommon Wisdom Daily, a division of Weiss Research Inc.
 
Comments
 
The bulk of the organizations who offer a Defined Benefit Pension Plan are full of government and union employees. This includes cities and counties, with teachers, police, fire, etc.  It includes the federal government and utilities like power plants and the phone companies, These employers did not considered the rising cost of pension plans like the private companies did.  Over the past few years, many cities have declared bankruptcy. Detroit and others have ceased paying pension checks to retirees.
 
After 1989, Congress tightened pension funding rules as the stock market went up and down like a rollercoaster. The 401K Defined Contribution Plans were already in place.  Many of us in the private sector terminated our pension plans and created Age Weighted Contribution Plans to ensure that older workers would not be hurt. We continued to contribute 5% of payroll to the “Age Weighted” Plan.  Most employees transferred their pension payout funds to their “Age Weighted” Plan. This allowed employees to choose the investment options. It allowed companies to remove a troublesome liability.
 
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
 

No comments: