Deadly Swine Fever Is Ravaging
China's Pork Industry, and It May Be Spreading, by Amy Gunia, 5/9/19.
There are many
reports of cover-ups in China,” Brett Stuart, co-founder of analysis firm
Global AgriTrends told TIME. He said a farm manager was reportedly jailed after
reporting a case in Shandong province, suggesting authorities could be trying
to obscure the reach of the problem.
Along the Gulf
shores of Texas and Louisiana there is a complex of deep, underground caverns.
Inside each of these enormous caves – each of which is large enough to easily
fit Chicago’s Willis Tower inside the
U.S. government keeps hundreds of millions of barrels of petroleum to safeguard
the country against natural-disaster-induced and political-conflict-related
supply disruptions.
Many countries have
similar strategic reserves, but on the other side of the world, China maintains
a different kind of stockpile: icy
warehouses around the country are filled with frozen pork. The commodity is of
such importance in China which consumes more pork per capita than any other
country after Vietnam that the government set up a national reserve to protect
the country from shortages and price volatility.
But the country’s
pork industry is being devastated by a deadly, highly-contagious virus. Since
officials began reporting cases last August, African Swine Fever (commonly
known by its abbreviation ASF), has swept across the country. Outbreaks have
hit every province and all five autonomous regions (like Tibet and Mongolia),
and experts believe there are far more cases than the 129
outbreaks officially reported.
The latest cases in China’s
southern Hainan island a waterway and more than 2,000 miles from the
northeastern province of Liaoning where ASF was first reported — show how
quickly the virus can spread. ASF, for which there is no cure or vaccine, can
be passed between sick animals, or from objects like a farmer’s clothing and
boots.
Consumption of
infected meat the resilient disease can live for months in pork products like
sausage is a major contributor to its spread in China, where many small famers
feed their pigs household garbage, although the government has now placed
restrictions on swill feeding. ASF is not known to be harmful to humans.
Experts say that the
disease has moved more rapidly in Asia than in other regions where outbreaks
have been found, like Europe.
“I have been very
surprised about how fast ASF has spread in China,” Dr. Linda Dixon, an ASF
researcher at the Pirbright Institute, a research institute dedicated to
studying infectious disease in farm animals, told TIME.
Widespread culls
have been enacted to fight the spread of ASF.
Data released by
China’s National Bureau of Statistics show that pig numbers decreased
to 375.3 million, a drop of 40 million, at the end of March from one year
earlier, according to the Wall Street Journal. China’s Ministry of Agriculture and
Rural Affairs believes the situation is worse, estimating that pigs have
decreased 19% year-on-year, says the Journal.
“The impact on
China’s pork industry has been catastrophic. Farms are empty across China.
Farmers have been directed to wait up to [six] months before restocking,” says
Stuart, of Global AgriTrends.
The decline in
China’s pig stocks could seriously impact meat production at a time at a time
when trade tensions are high. Chenjun Pan, Senior Analyst at Rabobank, told
TIME that production could fall as much as 25-35% in 2019, and some experts
believe China will be reliant on U.S. pork to keep its population fed.
China has
imposed retaliatory
tariffs of 50% on U.S. pork imports, which brings the total tariff level to
62% when factoring in the normal 12% rate applied to U.S. pork brought into the
country. The USDA estimates that China will be the biggest source of demand for
U.S. pork in 2019, and they expect China’s imports to rise 41%
for the year.
“China’s need for
pork will make it hard to ignore the U.S. It is logistically and physically
impossible to find enough pork to fill China’s impeding pork gap,” says Stuart,
of Global AgriTrends.
And the disease
appears to be spreading. Vietnam reported its first outbreak in February, and
Cambodia confirmed the virus’
arrival in March. In the last few weeks, more
cases have been reported near Cambodia’s border with Vietnam.
Customs authorities
worldwide are on alert. Tourists arriving in Taiwan were fined for
bringing pork products into the country, and ASF was discovered in sausage
confiscated at a Japanese
airport. In March, U.S. customs officials seized
a million pounds of Chinese pork on swine fever concerns.
According to Dixon,
of the Pirbright Institute, it seems “likely” that ASF will spread further
across Southeast Asia due to large pig populations living in small farms. Laos
has already put a hold on the import of pigs and pork products from China. In
early April,
Thailand approved
funding to prepare the country for a potential outbreak. “Thailand is
probably next,” warns Stuart.
Hog
Prices are Up
It has been a remarkable six weeks. Last week’s
national negotiated hog carcass price averaged roughly $75.50 per
hundredweight. That is $30 per hundredweight (67%) higher than at the start of
March and the highest for any week since mid-July. Although a price increase at
this time of year is not unusual, this year’s rally was both extreme and mostly
unexpected. Last Friday the April lean hog futures contract expired at $79.30
per hundredweight. That was $22.90 per hundredweight higher than the contract’s
close on March 1.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody
GA Tea Party Leader
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