Monday, May 27, 2019

Yemen War


In the 19th century, the area that is now Yemen was divided between the British Empire, which occupied the port of Aden and the south, and the Ottoman Empire, which occupied Sana'a and the north.

When the Ottoman Empire collapsed, a Shia Imam from the Zaidi sect consolidated power in the north. Britain continued to occupy the south.

In the 1960s war broke out in the northern part, which saw factions backed by Saudi Arabia and Egypt respectively face off in a civil war. They were in turn backed by the US and the Soviet Union respectively.

The Yemen Arab Republic emerged from this war. Ali Abdullah Saleh became its leader in 1978.

Britain withdrew from Southern Yemen in 1967, which then became a Marxist State called the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen.

Fighting broke out between the northern and southern republics during the 1970s, but co-operation over energy exploration and the collapse of the South’s backer, the USSR, saw the republics unify in 1991 after a popular vote.

Northern leader Ali Abdullah Saleh became head of the new state. A civil war broke out shortly after unification which lasted until 1994.

Mr Saleh remained in power until 2011, when he was replaced by Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi after a popular uprising during the Arab Spring.

President Hadi faced instability on several fronts when he came to power. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula carried out several large attacks on government targets.

Ousted former President Saleh (above), who also retained the loyalty of some military commanders, forged an alliance with his former enemies, the Shia Houthis in the north of the country.

The instability led many Yemenis to become dissatisfied under President Hadi. A Houthi mounted an offensive and took the capital Sana'a in late 2014. President Hadi fled abroad in early 2015.

Saudi Arabia then intervened, along with a coalition made up of United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar (until 2017), Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Senegal and Sudan. The US and the UK are the main international backers of the Saudi coalition.

The war is predominantly a local civil war, in which Saudi Arabia has intervened to protect its southern border and to try to prevent a Houthi takeover by restoring to power President Hadi. Saudi Arabia maintains the Houthis are an Iranian proxy. 

The Houthis do receive Iranian support but are not Iranian proxies. While the Houthis are Shias, they belong to a different sect to the one that is prevalent in Iran.

Iran is also primarily engaged in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon and does not see Yemen as a vital interest, nor does it want to commit large-scale resources to the conflict.

Iran-Houthi links could be summarised as 'Saudi's difficulty is Iran's opportunity' and even limited support to the rebels achieves this outcome.

Iranian help to the Houthis has escalated since the Saudi intervention. In an effort to choke off this support, a blockade has been imposed on Yemeni ports by the Saudi-led coalition, which has had devastating humanitarian consequences.

The US and the UK are Saudi Arabia’s most powerful supporters. The US signed a $110bn arms deal with Saudi Arabia last year, while the UK has sold around £4.5bn worth of weaponry to Saudi Arabia since 2015.

UK and US personnel have also provided advice in Saudi Arabia’s aerial command and control centre, which both countries say is aimed at avoiding civilian casualties.


Nominal GDP in Yemen was $26.9 billion in 2018.
Yemen produced 50,000 bpd in oil in 2018.

Houthi rebels control the western third of Yemen. Al Qaeda presence is on the southern coast.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader


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