Friday, August 9, 2019

Stock Market Roller-Coaster


The stock market goes up and down, so that day traders and investment companies can buy low and sell high. They use every event they can think of to do this. This is an auction. If you can get a 1000 point rise in the Dow and sell to harvest cash, you can go right back in and buy low again.

This time it was the Federal Reserve announcement anticipation and actual lowering of the Fed Funds Discount Rate from 2.5% to 2.25%.  The upswing on 7/23/19 was due to anticipation of a 0.50% cut. The downturn on 8/2/19 was due to disappointment that it was a 0.25% cut, not a 0.50% cut.

The “uncertainty” over getting a trade deal with China is another non-crisis that can trigger ups and downs. The companies who sent their manufacturing to China are not happy, but our quickest road to restoring manufacturing jobs is to tariff everything from China and not make a deal. The News Media triggers these events by overblowing each event with what could go wrong. This is how you get the memo.

The latest stock market dip

Date       Dow Average Closing
7/1/19     26,717.43 
7/23/19   27,349.19 (631.76 gain)
8/2/19     26.485.01 (864.18 loss)
8/6/19     26,029.52 (455.49 loss)
8/8/19     26,378.53 (263.52 gain)

This was a correction back from the 27,000 level to the 26,000s.


Dow Average Closing by Year

2019 25,857
2018 25,047
2017 21,750
2016 17,927
2015 17,587
2014 16778
2013 15,010
2012 12,996
2011 11,958
2010 10,669
2009   8,886


This sets up more expectation for the Dow to go back up the over 27,000. I believe the Dow and the S&P 500 Index will continue to be a mixed bag, with companies screwing up, getting lucky, hyping their bandwagons and sacrificing growth to get a high quarterly return. I am bearish long term on government, education, healthcare, retail and financial “services”. I am bullish on manufacturing, resource extraction and construction returning to the US.


Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader


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