Tuesday, August 5, 2025

US Trade Ban on Cuba 8-5-25

In 2025, the US trade ban with Cuba remains in effect, with a continued emphasis on restrictions targeting entities linked to the Cuban military, intelligence, or security services. The US State Department has reinstated and updated the Cuba Restricted List, identifying entities with which direct financial transactions are restricted. This action is part of a broader effort to strengthen US policy towards Cuba, focusing on ending economic practices that disproportionately benefit the Cuban government.  

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

·       Reinforced Restrictions: The US has reinforced its policy of restricting trade with Cuba, particularly with entities linked to the Cuban military, intelligence, or security services. 

·       Cuba Restricted List (CRL): The State Department has reinstated and updated the CRL, which identifies entities and sub-entities under the control of, or acting for, the Cuban military, intelligence, or security services. 

·       Focus on Military-Controlled Entities: The CRL includes Cuban military-controlled hotels and other businesses, targeting sectors like real estate, tourism, retail, and hospitality. 

·       Expanded Criteria:The CRL now includes entities "for the benefit of" the Cuban military, intelligence, security services, or personnel, expanding beyond just those "under the control of" such entities. 

·       Implementation of NSPM-5:

The actions are part of the implementation of National Security Presidential Memorandum 5 (NSPM-5), which emphasizes strengthening US restrictions on Cuba. 

·       Continued Restrictions: The memorandum directs agencies to adjust regulations regarding transactions with Cuba, and the State Department has already added entities to the CRL based on the expanded criteria. 

·       Impact on Tourism: The restrictions impact various sectors, including tourism, with numerous hotels on the CRL. 

US trade ban with Cuba 2025

In July 2025, the U.S. government announced a tightening of restrictions on Cuba, reaffirming the long-standing trade embargo and placing further limitations on transactions with entities controlled by the Cuban military

Specifically:

·       The U.S. continues to prohibit direct or indirect financial transactions with entities controlled by the Cuban military, intelligence, and security services. This includes the reinstatement and updating of the Cuba Restricted List.

·       The statutory ban on U.S. tourism to Cuba remains in effect, with an emphasis on ensuring compliance through regular audits and record-keeping for travel-related transactions.

·       The U.S. continues to oppose calls from international organizations to terminate the economic embargo of Cuba. 

These actions signify a continuation of the stricter stance towards Cuba implemented in the past, despite some earlier efforts towards easing sanctions. 

However, it's important to note:

·       The decades-old economic embargo itself remains in place and requires congressional action to be lifted.

·       Certain U.S. exports of agricultural goods and medical devices are permitted with proper licensing. In fact, sales of agricultural products from the U.S. to Cuba reached a record high in May 2025.

·       Imports of certain goods and services produced by independent Cuban entrepreneurs are allowed.

·       While travel for tourism is prohibited, Americans can still visit Cuba under 12 authorized travel categories including family visits, journalistic activity, professional research or meetings, religious activities, support for the Cuban people, and educational activities. 

The policy landscape regarding Cuba remains complex and subject to change based on various factors, including the political climate in both countries. 

Based on the provided information, here's an outlook for Cuba's nominal GDP and the role of AI in 2025:

Cuba nominal GDP 2025

·       Cuba's GDP is forecast to reach $26.72 billion in 2025, according to Statista. Statista forecasts indicate a GDP per capita of $2440 for the same year.

·       Some estimations predict a modest 1% growth in the economy, Reuters reports and OnCubaNews confirms. The Cuban government attributes this to a recovery in tourism and export earnings, as well as revival in agriculture, industry, and social services.

·       However, other organizations, such as the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), forecast a decline of 0.1% for the same year.

·       The economy has faced significant challenges, including U.S. sanctions, the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and an energy crisis. 

AI outlook

·       Cuba has demonstrated a proactive approach to AI, collaborating with China on an AI development institution and launching a National AI Strategy in 2024, according to UNESCO.

·       The country is also reportedly ahead of most Latin American nations in cybersecurity, a key area for safe AI development and implementation, notes The Caribbean Council.

·       Early AI applications are focused on improving agricultural yields through weather forecasting and optimizing resource allocation within Cuba's centrally planned economy, according to The Borgen Project.

·       Despite these efforts, challenges remain, particularly in areas like digital access disparities, lack of specialized AI educational programs, and limited R&D spending, states UNESCO

In summary, Cuba's economic recovery in 2025 is projected to be slow, with differing opinions on whether there will be modest growth or a slight decline. The country's proactive approach to AI development, focusing on cybersecurity and practical applications in sectors like agriculture and resource management, positions it to potentially benefit from AI in the coming years. However, addressing the existing challenges in areas like infrastructure, education, and research funding will be crucial for realizing the full potential of AI in Cuba. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+trade+ban+with+cuba+2025

Comments

Cuba's population in 2025 is estimated at around 10.9 million people,

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

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